Bitcoin is nearing a critical cost basis for long-term holders, currently estimated at $38,900, as the cryptocurrency's price continues to decline. Analysts, including CryptoQuant's 'Darkfost', highlight that long-term holders are experiencing diminishing profits, now averaging 74%. Historical patterns suggest that bear markets often see prices dip below this cost basis, triggering a capitulation phase with realized losses around 20%. Recent data from Glassnode indicates that the 90-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has fallen below 1, signaling a shift into a loss-realization phase. This trend is expected to persist for at least six months. Analyst James Check noted that Bitcoin is close to recording five consecutive monthly declines, with significant volatility and oversold conditions. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's supply in loss has reached 10 million coins, with 50% of the circulating supply in loss, suggesting a potential bear market bottom. Despite a minor rebound in Asian markets, where Bitcoin briefly rose by $2,000 to $66,000, bearish sentiment remains strong. The recent price movement has formed another lower high, with $60,000 continuing to act as support for further declines.