Standard Chartered Bank projects that stablecoin issuers may become major buyers of U.S. Treasury bills, potentially driving $0.8 to $1 trillion in demand by 2028. This surge is linked to the expected growth of stablecoins' market capitalization to $2 trillion, with emerging markets contributing significantly. The GENIUS Act mandates high-quality liquid assets for stablecoins, with short-term Treasury bonds as a core component.
The U.S. Treasury may need to adjust its issuance structure to address a projected $0.9 trillion supply-demand gap in T-bills over the next three years. Analysts suggest increasing the issuance of short-term notes by reducing long-term bond auctions. This shift could lead to a bull market in short-term government bonds, although Standard Chartered anticipates a steepening yield curve with a 10-year yield of 4.6% by year-end.
The macroeconomic impact of stablecoins is growing, with Tether USDt holding over $120 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds. The rise of stablecoins could also divert up to $500 billion from bank deposits to the government bond market, highlighting their increasing role in the global economy.
Stablecoins Could Drive $1 Trillion Demand for U.S. Treasury Bonds by 2028
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