A comprehensive backtest of the MACD strategy over the past five years reveals that a 4-hour trading cycle significantly outperforms the traditional HODLing approach for both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). The analysis shows that while short-term trading strategies (15m, 30m, 1h) often result in losses due to excessive trading and transaction costs, the 4-hour MACD strategy yields superior returns.
For Bitcoin, the 4-hour MACD strategy achieved a return of approximately 96%, compared to a 48.86% gain from simply holding the asset. Ethereum's performance was even more pronounced, with the 4-hour MACD strategy delivering a 205% return, far surpassing the 53% gain from HODLing. When leverage is applied, the returns are amplified, with ETH's 4-hour MACD strategy at 3x leverage yielding a remarkable 552% return.
The study underscores the importance of selecting the right timeframe and leverage level, highlighting that the 4-hour cycle is optimal for capturing market trends without the pitfalls of short-term noise. Traders are advised to exercise caution with leverage, as excessive use can lead to significant losses.
4-Hour MACD Strategy Outperforms HODLing in 5-Year Crypto Backtest
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