Donald Trump has announced a review of U.S. troop levels in Germany, introducing a new factor into the ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions. The probability of the U.S. declaring war on Iran by December 31, 2026, stands at 7.5%, slightly down from 8% the previous day, reflecting a minor shift in market sentiment. This development comes as Congress holds hearings on the underestimated costs of a potential U.S.-Iran conflict, projected at $25 billion. The market for April 30 remains at 0.1% approval, with a notable 7-basis-point gap between April 30 and December 31 contracts, suggesting traders expect significant developments later in the year. The daily trading volume in the related market is $84,733, though actual trades in USDC are minimal, indicating moderate liquidity.