Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps, in collaboration with CBS's "60 Minutes," has exposed nine Polymarket accounts that allegedly used insider information to profit over $2.4 million by betting on U.S.-Iran military actions. The accounts, which achieved a 98% win rate, were identified through an investigation that began on February 28, focusing on markets related to U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. Four accounts registered just days before the strikes, placing large bets at low odds, each earning around $400,000. These were linked to five additional accounts through temporal and volume analysis.
The investigation revealed that these accounts were primarily active in U.S. military-related markets, with funds moving through centralized exchanges into a shared wallet network. The accounts showed strategic betting patterns, including pre-positioning before significant events like the February 28 strikes, the killing of Soleimani, and a U.S.-Iran ceasefire announcement. Bubblemaps noted that the win rate could not be attributed to luck, although the accounts could not be linked to specific entities. This case surpasses the scale of a previous insider trading incident involving U.S. Army Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke. Former CFTC official Rob Schwartz described this as "a new form of insider trading."
Bubblemaps Uncovers $2.4M Insider Trading on Polymarket Over U.S.-Iran Conflict
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