The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 77.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates through October, with a 22.1% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point hike. Market expectations currently favor a pause in the immediate term over further tightening.
Looking ahead to December, the outlook shifts significantly toward rate increases. The tool shows only an 11.4% probability of rates remaining unchanged, while a cumulative 25 basis point hike carries a 62.3% likelihood. A 50 basis point cumulative increase is priced at 24.3%, with a 75 basis point hike at just 2.1%.
CME FedWatch: 77.9% Probability Fed Holds Rates in October
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