Binance Research has identified four key on-chain signals indicating a tightening Bitcoin supply and exhausted selling pressure. Nearly 60% of Bitcoin's supply has remained unmoved for over a year, a significant increase from 27% in 2012. Dormant supply peaked at 69.5% following the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, and despite a subsequent "sell-the-news" reaction, it remains near historical highs, reflecting strong long-term holder conviction.
Additionally, the SLRV ratio is at historical lows, suggesting market apathy and the exit of most short-term speculators. Exchange balances have decreased from 17.6% during the COVID period to 15.0%, with approximately 500,000 BTC leaving exchanges, reducing available sell-side supply to a six-year low. The BTC STH MVRV ratio, which had been below 1.0 since November 2024, has now risen above 1.0, indicating that short-term holders are beginning to rebuild unrealized gains.
Binance Research Highlights Tightening Bitcoin Supply and Exhausted Selling Pressure
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