Bernstein analyst Mark Moerdler estimates that infrastructure spending tied to OpenAI's disclosed compute partnership agreements could cumulatively reach $614 billion by 2030, significantly below the widely cited $750 billion figure. The estimate assumes all identified contracts are executed as planned, though actual spending may be reduced or delayed due to data center construction setbacks, project cancellations, and hardware procurement adjustments. OpenAI's agreements with Oracle, Microsoft, and Amazon are valued at roughly $300 billion, $250 billion, and $138 billion respectively, typically spanning five to eight years. The CoreWeave deal carries a $22.4 billion cap but does not represent guaranteed revenue. Because compute is delivered in batches, costs will accrue gradually as facilities come online rather than creating immediate payment obligations, with annual spending expected to peak at $184 billion in 2031. Bernstein noted that large cloud service providers face limited contract risk in the near term. The firm flagged that once future tightness in compute supply eases, specialized compute providers reliant on high-cost financing and continued leasing demand could come under greater pressure.