U.S. September CPI and core inflation data will be released on Wednesday, serving as a critical gauge for the timing of the Federal Reserve's next rate hike. Market pricing currently reflects only a 19% probability of an October 28 rate increase, down significantly from previous highs of 70%, while a 25-basis-point hike remains fully priced in for December following recent weak employment data and dovish Fed commentary.
Gold continues to trade sideways amid conflicting macro signals, with downside risks persisting despite resilience against bearish factors. The upcoming week features a heavy slate of economic releases including ADP employment, retail sales, PPI, and initial jobless claims, alongside multiple speeches from Fed officials and Chair Warsh’s appearance at the IMF Annual Meetings in Bangkok.
U.S. September CPI Data to Test Fed Rate Hike Expectations as Gold Direction Remains Unclear
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