About $1 trillion of non-financial investment-grade corporate bonds are trading at spreads significantly wider than their rating ranges, despite overall volatility in global high-grade credit remaining subdued. The total includes about $580 billion in the United States and nearly $400 billion in Europe, covering issues with more than three years remaining to maturity.
The broader high-grade index spread remains near its tightest levels in almost 25 years, but dispersion within the market has widened. Some single-A bonds now trade wider than the BBB curve, while certain investment-grade issues trade at spreads above some junk bonds. Analysts attribute the shift to higher leverage among AI hyperscalers, competitive pressure on automakers from China, AI-related risks for software companies, and penalties on insurers with private credit exposure.
The divergence is creating mispricing opportunities for active managers, though spreads could reprice further if ratings are downgraded or market sentiment turns.
Roughly $1 Trillion in Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Trade Outside Rating Norms
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