Veteran traders on Kalshi and Polymarket are hitting the streets to conduct offline voter canvassing and field research ahead of the US midterm elections, seeking information edges in prediction markets. Among them is Douglas Campbell, a former DNC economics professor and election model analyst who goes by "AlexanderHam" on Kalshi with over $800,000 in accumulated profits, ranking sixth among the platform's election traders. Another trader, David Bensoussan, operates under "Scottilicious" on Polymarket with more than $1.5 million in profits and currently holds a position exceeding $280,000 betting Democrats win the House — an outcome priced at approximately 94% market probability.
The trend of traders pursuing ground-level research has raised concerns about information asymmetry and potential insider trading in prediction markets. Polymarket opened an investigation this week into suspicious trading activity during the Israeli election period, signaling growing scrutiny as the space matures.
Kalshi and Polymarket Traders Hit the Streets for Midterm Voter Surveys, Sparking Insider Trading Concerns
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