Goldman Sachs revised its Federal Reserve policy outlook following unexpectedly strong US October CPI data, now forecasting a third 25-basis-point rate hike in March 2027. Chief US economist David Mericle said the firm still expects a second 25-bp hike in December, with the additional move potentially pulled forward to January, though March remains slightly more likely given anticipated mild inflation readings in November and December followed by upward price pressures early next year.
The bank maintained its terminal fed funds rate forecast at 3.25%–3.5% but pushed back its first rate-cut projection by one quarter, now expecting easing to begin in December 2027 rather than earlier in the year. The revision reflects persistent cost pressures that Goldman believes will keep inflation elevated into 2027.
Goldman Sachs Adds Third Fed Rate Hike in March 2027, Delays First Cut to December 2027
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