Barclays forecasts that the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield could reach 6% if the AI investment surge drives sustained acceleration in American productivity. Stronger productivity growth would enable faster economic expansion and force markets to raise long-term Federal Reserve rate expectations, pushing up long-end yields. The 30-year Treasury yield has already climbed above 5.61%, marking its highest level since 2002. Barclays suggests that continued AI-driven efficiency gains could be the catalyst for breaching the 6% threshold as investors recalibrate long-term rate outlooks.