Trump's 15% Global Tariff Shock vs. Bitcoin's Resilience

The biggest trade policy shakeup in a generation hit markets on February 20, 2026. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that President Trump's sweeping tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were illegal. Within hours, Trump fired back. He signed an executive order imposing a new 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. By Saturday, he raised it to 15%, the maximum that law allows.

Bitcoin dipped to $66,500 on the headline. Then it bounced to $68,000. Then it dipped again. Then it bounced again. As of February 22, BTC trades near $68,000, roughly flat over the 48-hour window surrounding the most significant tariff event since Liberation Day in April 2025.

That muted reaction tells a story. Here is what happened, why BTC held, and what traders should watch next.

What Did the Supreme Court Rule?

The Supreme Court decided that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not give the president authority to impose tariffs. Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the majority opinion in the 6-3 decision, stating that no president has ever used the statute to impose tariffs of this magnitude and scope.

This matters because IEEPA was the legal backbone for most of Trump's tariff program. The "reciprocal" tariffs announced on Liberation Day in April 2025 were imposed under IEEPA. Country-specific tariffs negotiated in subsequent trade deals were largely built on IEEPA authority. According to J.P. Morgan, IEEPA measures accounted for roughly 61% of the year-to-date increase in U.S. tariffs, representing approximately $180 billion on an annualized basis.

The ruling immediately invalidated tariffs on dozens of countries. The EU had agreed to a 15% tariff as part of its trade deal with the U.S., but since that deal was implemented under IEEPA, it was voided. China faced two sets of 10% IEEPA tariffs on top of a 25% duty that remains intact.

More than 1,000 lawsuits were filed by importers seeking refunds within hours. The U.S. Treasury had collected over $133 billion from IEEPA-based tariffs as of December 2025. The question of refunds remains unresolved, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested "the American people won't see" direct refunds.

How Did Trump Respond?

Trump moved fast. On Friday evening (February 20), he signed a proclamation imposing a new 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. This law allows the president to levy a "temporary import surcharge" of up to 15% for 150 days to address balance-of-payments deficits.

By Saturday morning, Trump posted on Truth Social that he was raising the rate to the maximum 15%, calling the Supreme Court's decision "ridiculous, poorly written, and extraordinarily anti-American."

Key details of the new tariff regime traders should understand.

The 15% tariff takes effect February 24 at 12:01 a.m. EST. It is a 150-day temporary measure unless Congress extends it. Several categories are exempt, including some agricultural products (beef, tomatoes, oranges), critical minerals, pharmaceuticals, some electronics, and passenger vehicles. Steel, aluminum, and auto tariffs imposed under other legal authorities (Section 232) remain unaffected.

Trump also signaled that his administration would pursue additional tariffs through Section 232 (national security) and Section 301 (unfair trade practices) investigations. Bessent said the administration expects "virtually unchanged tariff revenue in 2026."

For many countries, 15% is lower than what they faced under IEEPA. Brazil had faced duties as high as 50%. India, Canada, China, and South Africa would also see lower rates temporarily. But countries like Argentina, Australia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK face higher tariffs than before.

How Did Bitcoin React?

Bitcoin's price action over the 48-hour window tells a story of resilience rather than strength.

The pattern is a compressed $66,500-$68,000 range over a period where traditional markets moved meaningfully. The S&P 500 rose 0.69%, Nasdaq gained 0.9%, and the Dow added 231 points on Friday. European stocks hit new record highs. The dollar weakened. Treasury yields rose on deficit concerns.

Bitcoin matched none of that upside. But it also failed to sell off on the escalation to 15%, which is the more interesting signal. In April 2025 when Liberation Day tariffs were first announced, BTC dropped sharply alongside risk assets. This time, the reaction was muted.

Why Did BTC Hold Up Better Than Expected?

Several factors explain Bitcoin's relative calm in the face of a headline that would have caused a 5-10% sell-off a year ago.

Tariff fatigue is real. Markets have been processing tariff headlines since April 2025. The "TACO trade" (a Wall Street nickname for Trump Always Caves Or Oscillates) has conditioned traders to treat tariff announcements as noise rather than signal. Investors have grown skeptical of extreme outcomes and tend to wait for implementation before repricing.

The net tariff picture improved for many countries. While the 15% rate sounds aggressive, it is lower than the 25-50% rates many countries faced under IEEPA. Brazil went from 50% to 15%. India went from similar highs to 15%. For the global economy as a whole, the Supreme Court ruling plus the 15% replacement tariff is a net reduction in trade friction compared to last week.

BTC was already beaten down. Bitcoin hit $60,001 earlier in February 2026. It dropped 29% from its October 2025 highs. The Fear and Greed Index sat at 9 (extreme fear) heading into the ruling. VanEck published research on February 20 stating that sellers appeared "exhausted" after the correction. When an asset has already absorbed significant pain, incremental bad news has less impact.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have stabilized. After weeks of outflows (including $133 million in a single day on February 19), the selling pressure appeared to pause around the Supreme Court ruling. ETF AUM had dropped from $125 billion to $94 billion over the prior month. That forced selling may have already occurred.

The "money printing" narrative. VanEck's Matthew Sigel posted on X that without tariff revenues, the government may need to print more dollars to cover the deficit. If the $133 billion in collected tariffs needs to be refunded and future tariff revenue drops, the fiscal gap widens. Some traders interpret this as bullish for BTC as a hard-money hedge.

How Does This Compare to Previous Tariff Shocks?

The pattern is unmistakable. Each successive tariff shock produces a smaller BTC reaction. The first hit was the worst. Markets have partially priced in persistent trade friction, and each new headline adds less marginal information.

What Should Traders Watch Next?

The 150-day clock. Section 122 tariffs expire after 150 days unless Congress acts. That puts the expiration around late July 2026. Markets will begin pricing the extension (or expiration) risk as that date approaches. If Congress does not extend, Trump loses his temporary tariff authority.

Section 232 and 301 investigations. The Commerce Department is launching investigations that could result in sector-specific tariffs with no expiration date. These could target pharmaceuticals (Trump hinted at rates approaching 200%), electronics, and other categories. Specific sectors face meaningful risk even as the headline rate dropped.

Refund litigation. Over 1,000 lawsuits have been filed. If the government is forced to refund a significant portion of $133 billion in collected tariffs, it could function as an "accidental fiscal stimulus" that injects cash into the private sector. This would be bullish for risk assets including BTC.

China's effective rate. China now faces a 35% total tariff (25% existing + 10% Section 122, likely rising to 35% at 15%). The previous IEEPA regime had China at 45%. The reduction could ease supply chain pressure but remains high enough to keep US-China trade friction elevated.

The $66,000-$68,000 range. BTC has traded in this range for most of the week. A break above $68,500 with volume could signal that the tariff overhang is fully absorbed. A break below $66,000 would suggest that the macro headwinds (weak Q4 GDP of 1.4%, elevated inflation at 3% PCE, potential Iran escalation) are overwhelming the tariff relief narrative.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did the Supreme Court strike down all of Trump's tariffs?

No. The ruling only affected tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and auto parts imposed under Section 232 (national security) remain in effect. Country-specific tariffs negotiated in trade deals also remain if they were implemented under authorities other than IEEPA.

What does the 15% global tariff mean for Bitcoin?

The direct impact on Bitcoin is limited since crypto is not a physical import subject to tariffs. The indirect impact flows through macro channels. Higher tariffs increase inflation expectations, reduce economic growth, and create risk-off sentiment. However, they also weaken the dollar and increase deficit spending, which some traders view as supportive for BTC.

Is Bitcoin a hedge against tariff uncertainty?

The data is mixed. During the April 2025 Liberation Day shock, BTC fell alongside equities. During the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling, BTC held steady while equities rallied. Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from a pure risk-on asset to something more nuanced, but it is not yet a reliable hedge against macro shocks in the way gold has performed.

Bottom Line

The Supreme Court struck down Trump's IEEPA tariffs. Trump replaced them with 15% under a different law. Bitcoin barely moved.

That is the headline. The context is more nuanced. BTC was already oversold, the net tariff picture improved for most countries, and markets have developed antibodies against tariff shock. The Fear and Greed Index at 9 suggests that fear was already maximum before the ruling. There was not much room to get more fearful.

For traders, the setup is a compressed range with a clear breakout level in both directions. Above $68,500 suggests the tariff headwind is fading. Below $66,000 suggests broader macro stress is taking over. The 150-day expiration clock, Section 232/301 investigations, and refund litigation are the next catalysts.

BTC is holding $68K in a world where the president of the United States is calling Supreme Court justices a "disgrace to their families" and raising tariffs within hours of losing a legal battle. That is a different kind of resilience than a green candle. It is the kind that suggests the selling is done, even if the buying has not started yet.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets carry extreme volatility and risk. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.