Standard Chartered Has Cut Its Bitcoin Target Twice in Three Months and Here Is What Their Analyst Sees Now

Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick lowered his year-end Bitcoin target from $150,000 to $100,000 on February 12, 2026, marking the bank's second downward revision in just three months. BTC is trading around $67,500 as of March 30, roughly 48% below the $100,000 year-end call and 47% below its all-time high of $126,000. The revision followed a period of sustained ETF outflows, weakening risk appetite, and fading expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. Kendrick told investors bluntly that he expects "more pain" before any recovery, with a possible dip to $50,000 before the year-end rebound materializes.

That kind of downgrade from one of the most closely watched institutional crypto analysts deserves a closer look, both for what changed in the model and for what Kendrick says still holds in the longer-term bull case.

How Standard Chartered Went from $300K to $100K in 90 Days

The timeline tells the story of how quickly institutional conviction can shift when the macro picture deteriorates.

In mid-2025, Standard Chartered's digital assets research desk had a $300,000 year-end 2026 Bitcoin target. That number was built on two legs. The first was continued corporate treasury accumulation, with companies following Strategy's (formerly MicroStrategy) playbook of using leverage and equity raises to buy BTC. The second was accelerating ETF inflows from institutional allocators treating Bitcoin as a portfolio staple.

By December 2025, Kendrick cut the target in half to $150,000. The reason was specific. Corporate treasury buying had stalled because the companies doing it no longer had the valuations or incentive structures to keep accumulating aggressively. Kendrick said future Bitcoin price increases would "effectively be driven by one leg only," meaning ETF buying. One leg supporting a $300K target is a $150K target.

Then in February 2026, the remaining leg wobbled as US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $4.5 billion in cumulative outflows since the start of the year. Risk appetite was deteriorating globally, and the Fed signaled no urgency to cut rates. Kendrick dropped the year-end target again to $100,000 and warned BTC could test $50,000 on the way there.

The Bull Case That Survives the Cuts

The cuts sound bearish in isolation, but Kendrick's framework still contains a strong second-half recovery thesis. The $100,000 year-end target implies roughly 48% upside from current levels, which would require a rally similar in magnitude to what BTC delivered between October and December 2024.

ETF inflows are the foundation. Despite the early-2026 outflow streak, cumulative net inflows since inception have passed the $56 billion mark, and total AUM across all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hit approximately $128 billion by mid-March. The five-day inflow streak recorded in the week of March 18 was the first sustained buying pattern of 2026, suggesting the tide may be turning.

Source: Bitbo

The Fed pivot remains the catalyst. Kendrick's model assumes at least one rate cut by year end, which would improve liquidity conditions for risk assets broadly. Markets are currently pricing in one to two cuts for the second half of 2026, and each meeting that passes without a cut builds pressure for the eventual move. BTC has historically front-run Fed pivots by 2-3 months.

The long-term target stays at $500K. Standard Chartered pushed this target from 2028 to 2030 but did not remove it. Kendrick has repeatedly said the structural drivers (sovereign adoption, ETF infrastructure, halving supply dynamics) remain intact even as the near-term timeline stretches.

The Bear Case Kendrick Is Warning About

This is where the analysis gets uncomfortable. Kendrick did far more than lower a number. He outlined a scenario where BTC falls another 25-30% before any recovery begins.

The $50,000 level represents the zone where leveraged positions built during the 2024 rally would face maximum liquidation pressure, and where the cost basis for many 2025 ETF buyers sits. A move there from current levels would mean a 60% drawdown from the $126,000 ATH, historically consistent with bear-market bottoms rather than mid-cycle corrections.

Kendrick's bear catalysts are straightforward. Continued ETF outflows through Q2, no Fed rate cut before September, and a broader risk-off environment driven by geopolitical tension or recession fears. If all three align, the $50,000 floor could break.

The honest take here is that Kendrick has been wrong on the upside twice in three months, and the market has moved against his forecasts both times. That does not invalidate the analysis, but it means traders should treat the $100,000 target as a scenario rather than a prediction.

How Other Institutions See Year-End 2026

Standard Chartered is far from the only bank with a year-end number, and the spread across forecasts tells you how much genuine uncertainty exists.

Bernstein's $150,000 call from March 24 is particularly relevant because it makes the argument Standard Chartered originally made before the cuts. Bernstein sees ETFs, corporate balance sheets, and structured capital products creating a fundamentally different market structure where downturns are less disorderly and cycles potentially last longer. That thesis is essentially Standard Chartered's original $300K framework with more conservative numbers.

VanEck takes the opposite view, expecting 2026 to be a digestion year rather than a breakout year. Their analysts point to weak retail participation and limited near-term catalysts as reasons to expect sideways action rather than a directional move.

What $67,500 to $100,000 Actually Requires

Getting from $67,500 to $100,000 by December 31 requires approximately 48% upside over nine months. BTC rallied roughly 55% from October to December 2024 and 40% in the final two months of 2023, so the magnitude is achievable, but both of those moves were catalyzed by ETF-related momentum with improving macro sentiment behind them. In March 2026, BTC is sitting 47% below ATH with mixed ETF flows and a Fed that shows no urgency to ease. The starting conditions are weaker.

Kendrick's own framework implies the most likely path runs through a Q2 capitulation event (possibly the $50,000 test), followed by a Q3 accumulation phase as the Fed signals cuts, and a Q4 breakout driven by renewed ETF inflows.

Three signals will tell you if that path is playing out. First, ETF flow direction. If weekly net inflows turn consistently positive through April and May, institutional demand is rebuilding regardless of spot price. The March 18 five-day inflow streak was encouraging, but one week does not make a trend. Second, the Fed's June and July meetings. If the dot plot shifts toward two cuts or Powell signals urgency, risk assets will reprice higher before any actual cut happens. Third, Bitcoin dominance. As long as it stays above 55%, the market remains in defensive mode within crypto, and a decline below 52-54% paired with rising ETF flows would signal the kind of broad recovery that could push BTC toward six figures.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Standard Chartered cut its Bitcoin forecast twice?

The first cut in December 2025 was driven by corporate treasury buying drying up, which removed one of the two pillars supporting their original $300,000 target. The second cut in February 2026 came after ETF outflows accelerated and the Fed showed no signs of cutting rates soon, weakening the remaining pillar. Each revision reflected a specific structural change rather than a general loss of conviction.

Could Bitcoin really drop to $50,000 before recovering?

Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick has specifically flagged $50,000 as a realistic near-term risk. A drop to that level would represent a 60% decline from the $126,000 ATH, which falls within the range of historical bear-market drawdowns. The level also coincides with the average cost basis for many 2025 ETF buyers, making it a zone where forced selling could accelerate before buyers step in.

Is Standard Chartered still bullish on Bitcoin long term?

Yes. The bank maintains a $500,000 long-term Bitcoin target, though they pushed the timeline from 2028 to 2030. Kendrick has said the structural drivers (growing institutional infrastructure, ETF adoption, halving supply dynamics, potential sovereign accumulation) remain intact even as the near-term path has become more difficult.

How does Standard Chartered's forecast compare to Bernstein's?

Bernstein is more aggressive at $150,000 for year-end 2026, arguing that institutional ownership is fundamentally changing Bitcoin's market structure. Standard Chartered originally held a similar view but revised downward after corporate demand weakened. Both theses depend on ETF-driven recovery, but Bernstein assumes faster and stronger inflows during H2.

Bottom Line

Standard Chartered's year-end target has traveled from $300,000 to $150,000 to $100,000 in three months, and each cut reflected real deterioration in the near-term picture rather than a change in the structural thesis. The $100,000 call still implies nearly 50% upside from here, but Kendrick warns the path runs through a possible $50,000 dip first. The signals that matter are ETF flow direction, Fed policy shifts before Q4, and the $50,000 level holding if tested. Bernstein's fresher $150,000 call shows not all institutional desks agree with the downgrade. The trade is not about picking a year-end number. It is about watching those signals and positioning when they align.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.