Hedera Price Analysis: Can HBAR Hold $0.11 After the IBM Cloud Listing?

Hedera's HBAR token closed 28 September 2026 at $0.1219, a 27.20% one-day gain that left it 11.05% above the $0.11 shelf. This Hedera price analysis treats the 30 May high of $0.10977 as the level HBAR has to close above. It also finds the IBM Cloud listing landed five days before the rally began.

Set against the clock, the IBM story doesn't fit the chart. When The Hashgraph Group's IBM release went out at 14:02 UTC on 23 September, HBAR printed its day low of $0.08817 in that same hour and closed down 8.65%. The 28 September surge started in the 08:00 UTC hour, before NVIDIA's agent-safety release reached the wires.

Hedera Price Analysis at a Glance

What Happened to the HBAR Price on 28 September?

HBAR opened the 28 September bar at $0.0958 and closed at $0.1219, a 27.20% gain on the 27 September close of $0.09583. The day's range ran from $0.09412 to $0.13099, a spread worth 38.5% of the prior close, and the close finished 6.94% under the high.

Turnover on the perpetual reached $9,782,773, or 5.63 times the $1,736,752 average of the 20 bars from 8 to 27 September. It was the busiest day of 2026 on this contract, well clear of the $3,966,765 traded on 22 September.

Of the 133 listed Phemex perpetuals with a 28 September move inside their current listing, only MARSCOIN's 28.07% beat HBAR, and 21 in all closed higher as BTC fell 1.13%. In HBAR's own series it was the fourth-largest daily gain of the 999 moves since the 3 January 2024 bar and the biggest since 2 December 2024 (+49.19%). The close was also HBAR's highest since 14 January 2026 ($0.12328).

The jump capped a run from $0.06457 on 16 August 2026, the lowest close since 14 November 2024. From there the HBAR price gained 88.8%, including 61.50% over the 30 bars to the anchor and 30.57% over the last seven of them.

What Was the IBM Cloud Listing?

The Hashgraph Group (THG), a Swiss firm building software on Hedera, announced on 23 September 2026 that its IDTrust identity platform was listed on the IBM Cloud Catalog. The release went out from Schwyz at 10:02 ET, or 14:02 UTC, and also announced IBM Silver Partner status and a global Embedded Solution Agreement.

IDTrust gives AI agents and people decentralised identifiers and verifiable credentials, each anchored on Hedera's ledger. The subheadline calls it "the first commercial Hedera-based enterprise application on a major cloud marketplace", though the body text settles for "among the first". The release calls the listing "a significant distribution milestone" for Hedera, since IBM clients can buy Hedera-anchored identity through their existing IBM consumption commitments.

THG and Hashgraph are separate companies, and Hashgraph is the software firm developing CLPR, the protocol Hedera gave to the Linux Foundation on 24 September. IBM holds a seat on Hedera's governing council, one the release dates to 2019. Our explainer on what Hedera (HBAR) is covers how that council runs the network.

Is the HBAR Rally Tied to the IBM News?

The hourly bars on Phemex's HBAR perpetual put five days between the IBM news and the rally, and the price fell in the hour the news went out.

HBAR peaked at $0.10136 in the 02:00 UTC hour of 23 September. It had already slid to $0.09403 by 14:00 UTC, before the release hit the wire. In the release hour it printed the day low of $0.08817, and it closed the day down 8.65%. Only 10 of the 126 perpetuals with a 22 and 23 September bar in their current listing closed higher. BTC fell 2.10% on that bar, while ALGO and XLM lost 7.12% and 6.61%.

On 24 September Hedera contributed CLPR, a bridgeless cross-ledger protocol developed by Hashgraph, to Linux Foundation Decentralized Trust Labs. HBAR rose 2.85% on that bar, while LINK gained 7.03%, ALGO 8.62% and XLM 7.74%.

The 28 September surge began in the 08:00 UTC hour, when HBAR ran from $0.09692 to $0.10779 for an 11.2% gain. Hedera's blog showed nothing newer than the CLPR post when we read it on 29 September. By the end of that hour HBAR stood 12.5% above the 27 September close, or 46% of the day's full gain.

NVIDIA's Open Agent Safety Platform release of 28 September names IBM among "over 100 organizations" working with the platform and never mentions Hedera or HBAR. The GlobeNewswire copy stamps it at 05:00 ET, or 09:00 UTC, the minute HBAR's first surge hour ended.

At 11:00 UTC, with HBAR up 20.5% on the day, LINK and XLM were both still below their 27 September closes. HBAR's 27.20% finished at about twice ALGO's 13.69%, the best of the next three crypto gainers on the board.

The IBM listing came first and the move came five days later, and the bars show that order without ever showing the reason for it.

Hedera Technical Analysis of the HBAR Price

Method: this HBAR price analysis takes every level from the daily and hourly bars of Phemex's HBARUSDT perpetual, read on 29 September 2026. The anchor is the 28 September close, which CoinGecko's point stamped 00:00 UTC on 29 September puts at $0.12201.

Where Are HBAR's Support Levels?

The first shelf is $0.10977, the intraday high of 30 May 2026 and the highest print between 31 January and 27 September. The February highs stalled below it, at $0.10744 on 14 February and $0.10676 on 25 February. HBAR first traded through it in the 08:00 UTC hour of 28 September and posted its first hourly close above it in the 09:00 UTC hour. The anchor close stands 11.05% above the shelf, so a 9.95% drop from $0.1219 would bring it back into play.

The second shelf is $0.10, some 17.97% below the anchor. From 14 February to 23 September HBAR's daily high reached $0.10 on 22 days, but only 10 closes held above it, the best $0.1038 on 14 February. The 22 and 23 September highs of $0.10072 and $0.10136 failed there as well, the second of them on the IBM day. Below $0.10 the next marker is the 20-day average, which stood at $0.085264 on the anchor.

Where Is HBAR's Resistance?

The first ceiling is the 28 September high of $0.13099, where the bar turned in the 18:00 UTC hour before giving back 6.94% into the close. Above it stand two January marks, the highest 2026 close of $0.13158 on 5 January and the year's intraday high of $0.13488 on 6 January. A daily close above $0.13158 would be HBAR's best finish of 2026.

What Do the Indicators Say?

The 14-day RSI on Wilder's smoothing read 80.21 on the anchor, up from 66.19 a bar earlier and the highest since 17 July 2025. Our guide to trading with the RSI indicator explains why traders call readings above 70 overbought.

MACD(12,26,9) stood at 0.007495 against a signal line of 0.004627, leaving a histogram of 0.002868 that had more than doubled from 0.001392 a bar earlier. The line crossed above its signal on 19 September and stayed above zero from 21 August through the anchor.

The 50-day at $0.078445 ran 3.88% below the 200-day at $0.081615, and the last cross between them was a death cross on 2 November 2025. The close stood 49.4% above the 200-day, and all nine closes from 20 to 28 September finished above that average.

Can HBAR Hold $0.11?

The case for the shelf holding rests on what changed on 28 September. HBAR closed above a shelf that capped every print from 31 January to 27 September and did it on the heaviest turnover of 2026.

A close under $0.10 would hand back more than four-fifths of the 28 September gain. Our read is that the shelf gets retested before January's highs do. An RSI of 80.21 and a close 49.4% above the 200-day leave little room for another push without a pause. For the multi-year view, our Hedera price prediction for 2026 to 2030 sets out the longer ranges.

What Are the Risks of Trading HBAR After the IBM Cloud Listing?

Headline risk: the story attached to the rally is five days older than the rally, and HBAR fell on the day it broke.

Momentum risk: the last time HBAR's RSI ran higher than 80.21 was 17 July 2025, and that day's $0.27632 close was 8.7% lower 30 bars later.

Supply risk: all 50 billion HBAR were created at launch, and the circulating share has grown through treasury allocations and other distributions. Our QNT vs HBAR comparison of tokenomics covers how HBAR's circulating supply has changed.

Leverage risk: at the perpetual's 50x maximum a 2% move against you wipes out the initial margin, and the 28 September bar ranged 38.5% of its prior close.

How to Trade HBAR on Phemex

Phemex lists an HBAR/USDT perpetual with leverage up to 50x and funding every eight hours, plus an HBAR/USDT spot pair if you want the token itself. At 14:01 UTC on 29 September the perpetual's funding rate field read 0.01% per interval and open interest stood at 21,013,948 HBAR. At a positive rate, longs pay shorts at each settlement.

The levels on this page give you a working map. The $0.10977 shelf is the line a long position leans on, while $0.13099 and $0.13158 are where a long takes profit or a short looks for rejection. Size any stop for a bar that can travel as far as the 28 September one did.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did the HBAR price jump 27% on 28 September 2026?

Hedera's blog carried nothing dated 28 September. The day's 01:00 UTC hour traded $905,911 of the perpetual yet closed under 1% above the prior close, and no later hour topped it until 10:00 UTC.

What is the connection between Hedera and IBM beyond the listing?

The THG release says IDTrust already runs with a European telecoms operator to verify caller identity. It also ships MCP servers that let AI agents on IBM watsonx Orchestrate obtain their own credentials.

When did Canary's spot HBAR ETF start trading in the United States?

The Canary HBAR ETF began trading on Nasdaq under the ticker HBR on 28 October 2025. Our profile of how Canary won the Hedera ETF race covers its filings and holdings.

Did the HBAR spot pair on Phemex move as much as the perpetual?

The HBAR/USDT spot pair rose a little more, closing 28 September at $0.12207 for a 27.53% gain on $1,914,457 of turnover. The perpetual traded about 5.1 times that dollar volume.

What does the Hedera crypto network do beyond the HBAR token?

Hedera runs a public ledger whose governing council members operate its consensus nodes. In 2024 it contributed its whole network codebase to Linux Foundation Decentralized Trust as the open-source project Hiero.

Bottom Line

HBAR's best day since December 2024 arrived with a famous name attached and no timestamp to match it. That leaves $0.10977 as a level the market has to defend on price alone. Daily closes above it through the first retest would mean buyers are paying for more than the IBM headline. A break would mean the headline was never what held HBAR up.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.