Fu Peng, chief economist at New Huo Group and one of China's first economists to publicly track the crypto industry, declared in a comprehensive interview that he holds "no faith" in Bitcoin, viewing it strictly as an investable asset class within a broader portfolio. He argued that BTC cannot double from current levels due to its fixed supply creating hard constraints on institutional allocation capacity, comparing it to commodity copper rather than equities with expandable market caps.
The veteran economist dismissed the widely-cited four-year halving cycle as "a product of the previous era," stating that as Bitcoin transitions into institutional portfolio management, volatility will naturally decline and traditional macroeconomic factors—particularly liquidity conditions tied to the Fed's balance sheet—will become dominant price drivers. Fu emphasized that rate cuts do not automatically mean loose liquidity, warning that quantitative tightening can offset lower policy rates, pressuring all valuation-sensitive assets including crypto.
On the future of digital assets, Fu predicted that research strategies between traditional finance and cryptocurrency will converge entirely, with stablecoins eventually becoming the baseline for cross-border payments while RWA tokenization serves only niche markets untouched by conventional finance. He forecast AI will accelerate retail trader elimination while enabling young professionals to build "one-person hedge funds," and stated mainland China will not open up to crypto given fundamental differences in innovation culture between Eastern and Western regulatory frameworks.
Veteran Economist Fu Peng: 'No Faith' in BTC, Four-Year Cycle Dead, Price Can't Double Again
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