Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) said the November 3 US midterm elections will have limited impact on Treasury markets, though a full Democratic sweep of both chambers could push yields modestly higher through expanded healthcare spending. The bank estimates Democratic healthcare policies could add $1.5 trillion in spending over 10 years, while restoring Affordable Care Act subsidies would cost roughly $80 billion over three years and $350 billion over a decade. A divided Congress would make major tax and spending adjustments difficult to advance, with tariff policy unlikely to be directly overturned by lawmakers. SMBC also flagged AI data center regulation as a secondary risk, noting local governments may tighten construction restrictions or cancel tax incentives, potentially slowing some AI investment — though the overall impact on economic growth and Federal Reserve policy is expected to remain limited. The report projects the US Treasury is unlikely to hit the debt ceiling before autumn 2027, with related negotiations possibly delayed until early 2028.