Traders on the prediction market platform Polymarket are assigning a 78% probability to an arrest in the Nancy Guthrie case by February 28, 2026. This follows new activity in a Bitcoin wallet linked to a ransom note sent after Guthrie's disappearance. The wallet, referenced in communications demanding up to $6 million in Bitcoin, showed its first transaction, though the amount remains undisclosed. Nancy Guthrie, mother of "Today" show host Savannah Guthrie, was reported missing on February 1, 2026, from her Tucson, Arizona home. The FBI and local authorities are investigating, with recent developments including the release of surveillance footage and the questioning of a suspect. The case's presence on Polymarket raises ethical concerns about speculation on active criminal investigations, potentially trivializing the situation and affecting public perception.