Bybit's latest weekly report highlights a significant shift in macroeconomic expectations, with the probability of a rate hike now at 60%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. This development disrupts the anticipated "ceasefire → rate cuts → BTC rally" sequence. Despite bullish factors such as SpaceX's BTC holdings and legislative proposals like the ARMA reserve and CLARITY Act, Bitcoin remains stable, consolidating near $77,000 after rebounding from $74,000. The report also notes that the decline in DVOL to approximately 35% marks a historical low, suggesting caution in the market. Analysts advise waiting for DVOL to recover above 45% before considering new strategies, as current market conditions remain uncertain despite accumulating bullish catalysts.