Prediction market data from Polymarket indicates a 21% probability for XRP to reach $4 by January 2026, according to Finbold. As of October 22, 2025, the likelihood of XRP hitting this target has increased by 4% in recent sessions. The most likely scenario is XRP trading at $3.20, with a 38% probability. Over $220,000 has been invested in these predictions, reflecting growing interest in XRP's long-term price trajectory.