Wall Street banks project the United States will borrow approximately $1 trillion through short-term Treasury bill issuance over the coming year to meet rising government financing needs. Bank of America forecasts $1.07 trillion in new debt for the fiscal year ending September 2027, while JPMorgan estimates $1.09 trillion and Goldman Sachs projects $961 billion. This shift toward short-term borrowing occurs as long-term U.S. borrowing costs have reached their highest levels since 2007.
Outstanding short-term Treasury bills are expected to rise to roughly $8 trillion by next September, representing about 24.3% of marketable Treasuries, according to Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. This ratio approaches pandemic-era peaks and exceeds the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee’s long-term recommendation of 20%. While increasing short-term issuance helps reduce current financing costs, analysts warn it raises future refinancing risk and could lead to more volatile interest expenses. Demand is currently supported by Federal Reserve purchases and money market funds holding approximately $8 trillion in assets.
Wall Street Projects U.S. Short-Term Treasury Issuance to Hit $1 Trillion
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