The U.S. midterm election season has entered its final stretch, with Wall Street preparing for multiple outcomes as prediction markets point to a possible split in congressional control. Markets currently favor the Democratic Party winning the House of Representatives, while the Republican Party holds a slight lead in the Senate race on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Futures tied to the Cboe Volatility Index show increased demand for protection against early-November swings in the S&P 500. Evercore ISI has advised traders to position for potential volatility using straddle options on the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, while markets also expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice by early 2027.
Investors increasingly view a Democratic-controlled House and a narrowly Republican Senate as the least disruptive market outcome, though the result remains uncertain.
Wall Street Positions for Divided Congress as Midterm Races Tighten
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