The cryptocurrency market has recently stabilized, with implied volatility (IV) for major terms showing a significant decline. However, the realized volatility (RV) over the past week remains high, leading to a historic drop in the one-week volatility risk premium (VRP). The average VRP has fallen from +20% last week to -25%, marking a rare 45% decrease. This shift indicates a rapid market adjustment in expectations for future volatility. Despite this, the inherent clustering nature of Bitcoin's volatility suggests that institutional sentiment may be overly optimistic, potentially leaving them vulnerable if a second downturn occurs. The irrationality in the options market has increased, historically signaling that a market bottom may not yet be confirmed.
Volatility Risk Premium Plummets as Market Adjusts Expectations
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