US users have reportedly wagered between $11 billion and $34 billion on offshore prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Myriad Markets, according to a report by consulting firm Crane Zeng. Despite geofencing measures, users bypass restrictions using VPNs. Polymarket alone is estimated to account for $11 billion to $27 billion of this activity. The report forecasts that by 2030, US user trading volume in these markets could reach $133 billion annually.
Offshore prediction markets represented 84.4% of the industry's total trading volume in 2024, dropping to 60.9% in 2025, although the total volume nearly quadrupled. Currently, CFTC-regulated platforms in the US have an annual trading volume of about $74 billion, while offshore platforms account for approximately $85 billion. Blockchain-based platforms are noted for their ease of access due to anonymity and lack of KYC requirements. Polymarket, previously banned from serving US users, re-entered the market with CFTC approval through QCEX acquisition, while unlicensed platforms remain prohibited.
US Users Secretly Wager Up to $34 Billion on Offshore Prediction Platforms
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