Two accounts have invested $6,100 in a prediction market on Polymarket, betting "Yes" on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by March 31. These accounts, known for accurately predicting past U.S. strikes against Iran, have placed their bets despite the current probability standing at 8%. One account previously earned 16 times its investment by predicting a strike date, while the other gained nearly 9 times its investment during the 2025 "Twelve-Day War." Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian recently stated that ending the conflict requires recognizing Iran's rights and providing international guarantees. The U.S. has yet to formally respond to these conditions, maintaining its demand for Iran to halt military actions and cut support for proxy groups. The traders involved have a history of adjusting their positions based on market developments, rather than betting on the actual occurrence of events.