A study by researchers from London Business School and Yale University has found that a small fraction of Polymarket accounts are responsible for the majority of price discovery and profits on the platform. Analyzing data from 2023 to 2025, the study revealed that approximately 3% of accounts, termed "expert winners," consistently predicted short-term price movements and outcomes, capturing over 30% of all profits. These accounts, along with market makers, comprised less than 3.5% of all accounts.
The research, which examined 1.72 million accounts and $13.76 billion in trading volume, also highlighted that 67% of accounts were classified as "losers," incurring the platform's total losses. Additionally, the study flagged 1,950 accounts for suspected insider trading, noting their significant impact on price movements despite limited overall accuracy. A case study within the paper detailed three accounts that profited over $630,000 by betting on political events, aligning with a recent CFTC insider trading lawsuit against U.S. Army Sergeant Major Gannon Ken Van Dyke.
Study Reveals 3% of Polymarket Accounts Drive Price Discovery, Capture 30% of Profits
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