Stablecoin depegging can show nonlinear threshold behavior, with arbitrage mechanisms able to absorb some information pressure until narrative severity reaches a critical point, according to research published in the Journal of International Money and Finance and compiled by the Fintech Research Institute of Renmin University of China.
The study, which used LLM agents to analyze depegging risks, found severe narrative shocks may trigger a self-reinforcing cycle of rising fear, deteriorating liquidity, concentrated retail selling, arbitrageur retreat, order imbalance and sustained depegging. In experiments with the most severe narrative shocks, different risk sources produced no statistically significant difference in average depegging, suggesting shock severity may matter more than narrative content under the model’s assumptions.
Study Finds Stablecoin Depegging Risk May Hinge on Critical Narrative Threshold
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