A recent report by Citizens JMP Securities reveals that retail investors in prediction markets have underperformed compared to sports betting users. From July 2025 to mid-March 2026, prediction market users experienced a median return of -8%, while legal sports betting users saw a median return of -5%. The report highlights that prediction markets often do not restrict profitable users, leading retail traders to compete directly with professional traders and market makers, resulting in most small accounts incurring long-term losses. High-frequency users with trading volumes exceeding $500,000 are among the few who achieve profitability, with a median return of approximately +2.6%. Additionally, prediction market platforms are attracting a younger demographic.