Bank of America's latest survey reveals that investors are more bearish on the U.S. dollar than they have been in over a decade, with net exposure at a record underweight. This sentiment is driven by concerns over the U.S. labor market, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Historically, Bitcoin has moved inversely to the U.S. Dollar Index, often rising when the dollar weakens.
However, a recent shift has seen Bitcoin develop a positive correlation with the dollar, complicating the traditional narrative. Despite a 9% drop in the dollar index last year and a further 1% this year, Bitcoin fell 6% in 2025 and is down 21% year-to-date. This unusual correlation, now at a 90-day high of 0.60, suggests that further dollar declines may not benefit Bitcoin as expected. Conversely, a dollar rebound could trigger a short squeeze, potentially lifting Bitcoin prices. At present, the dollar index is up 0.25% at 97.13, while Bitcoin trades at $68,150, down 1%.
Record Bearish Dollar Bets Could Impact Bitcoin Volatility
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