Project Eleven has issued a report indicating that quantum computers may break modern cryptography as early as 2030, a scenario known as "Q-Day." The startup, which focuses on post-quantum security, suggests that a breakthrough is "very likely" by 2033, with rapid advancements in quantum technology potentially accelerating this timeline. The report highlights that while recent quantum demonstrations, such as factoring a 15-bit elliptic curve key, are significant, they remain far from the 256-bit encryption used in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
The report estimates that approximately 6.9 million bitcoins, valued at over $560 billion, could be at risk if quantum capabilities advance. It emphasizes the urgency of transitioning to quantum-resistant wallets and addresses, referencing Mosca's inequality, which warns that systems must upgrade before threats materialize. The cryptocurrency industry is already taking steps, with proposals like Dan Robinson's timestamp scheme and BIP-361 by Jameson Lopp et al., offering migration paths to quantum-resistant solutions. Additionally, tech giants such as Google are also working towards quantum-resistant cryptography by 2029.
Quantum Breakthrough Could Threaten Cryptography by 2030, Warns Project Eleven
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