Prediction markets remain doubtful about an official U.S. government disclosure on extraterrestrial life in 2026, despite recent comments by former President Barack Obama. Polymarket bets currently assign only an 11% chance of such a disclosure occurring this year. Obama recently confirmed the existence of aliens in an interview, stating, "They're real, but I haven't seen them," and dismissed the idea of hidden facilities like Area 51. Despite these remarks, prediction markets showed little movement, indicating skepticism about any imminent official acknowledgment of extraterrestrial life. The market will only resolve positively if a definitive statement about the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology is made by a U.S. government official by December 31, 2026. Former President Trump has also commented on the topic, acknowledging the potential for a "deep state" to conceal information, though he expressed doubt about a cover-up regarding UAPs.