A potential 15% supply disruption at the Strait of Hormuz could significantly increase oil prices, warns Garrett Jin, an on-chain analyst known as "1011 Crash Insider Whale." Historical data shows that past supply gaps, such as a 7% shortfall in 1973 and a 4-5% gap in 1979, led to substantial price hikes due to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. The current situation at the Hormuz Strait, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, could exceed these historical disruptions. While most institutional models predict the disruption will last only a few days to weeks, a prolonged impact could force additional long positions, further driving up prices.