Polymarket data indicates an 82% probability that Trump will not be ordered to refund tariffs by July 2026. This follows a U.S. Supreme Court decision on February 20, which ruled 6-3 that Trump's trade tariffs were unlawful under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The ruling upheld a previous decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. Despite the ruling, Trump criticized the decision as a "shame" and mentioned having alternative plans for tariffs. The prediction market currently assigns only a 19% chance that a court will mandate a refund of the tariffs before the mid-2026 deadline.