Polymarket, a popular prediction market platform, has increased the probability of Lighter's fully diluted valuation (FDV) surpassing $3 billion on its launch day to 64%, according to on-chain data from Chainthink. The likelihood of Lighter's FDV exceeding $2 billion is even higher, standing at 84%. This prediction is based on $354.2 million in on-chain analysis volume, reflecting significant interest and speculation in the market.