The probability of the "Claude Mythos" model launching before April 30 has fallen to 28% on Polymarket, marking a significant 26% decrease over the past week. Approximately $42,000 has been wagered on this outcome. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a June release stands at 53%, with $11,600 in bets placed. According to the event contract, the market will resolve as "Yes" if Anthropic releases the model or confirms it as identical to a leaked version by the specified date, making it publicly available. Models must be named "Claude Mythos" or confirmed as identical to qualify, while other names like Claude Haiku or Sonnet will not count unless verified as the same model.