A recent analysis of Polymarket has uncovered instances of manipulation in prediction markets, where external influences and biases have distorted outcomes. In the 'Who will HBO identify as Satoshi?' market, community bias skewed predictions. Similarly, the 'How many gifts will Santa deliver in 2025?' market was influenced by a code-based number that became a trading signal. Additionally, the 'Israel strikes Gaza by…?' market experienced manipulation through social media and panic selling. These cases illustrate how prediction markets can be influenced by narratives and settlement controls rather than purely objective data.
Polymarket Case Studies Reveal Manipulation in Prediction Markets
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