A crypto analyst has challenged claims of significant profits from Polymarket's BTC price markets, citing several misconceptions. The analyst pointed out that Polymarket's BTC markets, set to expire in December 2026, do not settle for another 10 months, making it impossible to realize profits unless positions are sold on the central limit order book (CLOB). Additionally, the 15-minute BTC markets lack strike prices, rendering Black-Scholes calculations inapplicable. The analyst further noted that Polymarket consistently overprices volatility by 5-7 percentage points compared to Deribit implied volatility (IV), offering a potential edge. However, this translates to a modest 5-7% return over 10 months, not the claimed 454% in a week. The analyst concluded that such rapid gains are mathematically impossible without market settlement or finding a buyer at an even higher price.