I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

1.

Macro Environment

Expectations for multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025 have intensified after weak US labor data, fueling bullish sentiment in crypto. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's 36 stablecoin license applications signal imminent regulatory clarity in Asia. Poland's strict MiCA-aligned crypto bill raises concerns over innovation and market access for digital asset firms.
2.

Crypto Market

The crypto market rallied in the past 12 hours, with Bitcoin up 3.7% to $118,579 and Ethereum rising 5.0% to $4,355, driven by strong ETF inflows and bullish macro sentiment. Zcash surged 59% to $119.95 on Grayscale Trust news, while DEXE and MYX Finance gained 20% and 17% respectively, supported by DeFi momentum and protocol upgrades. Altcoins broadly outperformed, led by privacy and DeFi sectors.
3.

Today's Outlook

TOKEN2049 Singapore continues, drawing global industry leaders and driving sector-wide attention. DoubleZero (2Z) unlocks 283.7M tokens ($17M, 1.33% supply) today, potentially impacting token liquidity and market sentiment.
Fear and Greed Index
96.00% Annual Percentile
42 Neutral
Total Crypto Market Cap
$4.05T
3.89%
Total Market Trading Volume
$201.59B
20.45%
Altcoin Season Index
9.09%
Quarterly Percentile
61 / 100
Total Futures Market Open Interest
3.61B
2.96%
Futures
1.22T
13.20%
Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

1.

The U.S. ADP employment report showed a 32,000 job decline in September, signaling labor market weakness and increasing expectations for two more Fed rate cuts in 2025, which is fueling bullish sentiment and capital inflows into Bitcoin and DeFi markets.

2.

FedWatch data now indicates a 99% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut to 375–400 bps at the October 29 meeting, driving risk-on appetite and supporting crypto asset prices, especially BTC and ETH.

3.

The Reserve Bank of India kept its repo rate unchanged at 5.5% and raised its FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6.8%, citing strong domestic demand despite U.S. tariffs; this policy stability supports INR-denominated stablecoin and cross-border crypto flows.

4.

The global crypto market cap surged past $3.95 trillion as expectations of further U.S. monetary easing and weak labor data boosted institutional inflows into Solana and XRP, increasing DeFi liquidity and altcoin trading volumes.

5.

Gold and Bitcoin prices hit record highs as investors seek safe-haven assets amid U.S. government shutdown and anticipated Fed rate cuts, highlighting crypto's growing role as a macro hedge against fiat volatility.

1.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority received 36 stablecoin license applications by September 30, signaling imminent regulatory clarity and boosting institutional confidence in Asia's crypto sector.

2.

Poland's parliament passed a strict MiCA-aligned crypto bill, introducing severe penalties and a slow licensing process, raising concerns about innovation and market access for crypto firms.

3.

The U.S. Treasury and IRS clarified that unrealized crypto gains are exempt from the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax, reducing tax uncertainty and encouraging corporate digital asset holdings.

4.

Hashdex added Cardano (ADA) to its U.S. crypto index ETF after meeting new SEC standards, reflecting growing regulatory acceptance and expanding institutional investment options.

5.

Visa is piloting stablecoin pre-funding for cross-border payments, aiming to streamline compliance and liquidity, which could accelerate institutional adoption of regulated digital assets.

1.

Zcash (ZEC): ZEC surged 59% in 24h to $119.91 with $685M volume, driven by Grayscale's Zcash Trust opening private placements to qualified investors, sparking institutional demand.

2.

DEXE (DEXE): DEXE rose 20% in 24h to $11.38 with $46.7M volume, supported by strong DeFi sector momentum and increased DAO governance activity, attracting new holders.

3.

MYX Finance (MYX): MYX gained 17% in 24h to $16.70 with $187M volume, as traders speculated on protocol upgrades and high on-chain derivatives activity, despite airdrop-related caution.

Smart Money Movements

1.

MicroStrategy acquired 42,706 BTC worth over $5 billion in Q3 2025, significantly expanding its Bitcoin holdings.

2.

Tether purchased 8,888 BTC valued at approximately $1 billion on the last day of Q3 2025, increasing its total Bitcoin reserves.

3.

Metaplanet acquired 5,268 BTC for about $615.6 million, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 30,823 BTC and becoming the fourth largest public holder.

4.

Japanese lender MBK invested $2.04 million to purchase 17.6 BTC at an average price of $115,529, aiming to use Bitcoin for real estate settlements.

5.

Ace Digital, a Norwegian Bitcoin treasury firm, increased its spot Bitcoin holdings by 1.59 BTC at $114,650, raising its total to 25 BTC.

Events to Watch

Oct 2 (Thu)

TOKEN2049 Singapore continues; DoubleZero (2Z) unlocks 283.7M tokens ($17M, 1.33% supply), impacting token liquidity and market sentiment.

Oct 3 (Fri)

US Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Jobs Report scheduled for release; key indicators for Fed policy and global risk assets.

Oct 5 (Sun)

Aster (ASTER) unlocks 320M tokens ($503.58M, 4% supply), significantly increasing circulating supply and potential market volatility.

Oct 5 (Sun)

TOKEN2049 Singapore closes with AFTER 2049 party alongside F1 Grand Prix; major networking and industry announcements expected.

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