Toncoin Soars 30% as BTC Hits $81K Amid Rate Hike, Oil Surge

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates to 4.35% amid surging oil prices and persistent inflation, intensifying global cost pressures. Markets now price in a potential US Fed rate hike as inflation expectations rise, pressuring risk assets. Brent crude at $119 sustains high rates and volatility, dampening crypto inflows.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad gains, with BTC up 2.58% to $81,059 and ETH rising 1.63% to $2,379.69, supported by resilient ETF flows. Toncoin (TON) surged 30.48%, MORPHO Labs (MORPHO) gained 17.87%, and MemeCore (M) was flat. TON’s rally was driven by Telegram validator news, while DeFi tokens outperformed on strong user activity.

Today's Outlook

Key events today include the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision, the US Fed Governor Bowman’s speech, and the ISM Services Report release. These will shape global risk sentiment, interest rate expectations, and may drive volatility across crypto and traditional markets.

Fear and Greed Index

60.00% Annual Percentile

47 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.68T

2.66%

Total Market Trading Volume

$147.69B

2.79%

Altcoin Season Index

16.67%

Quarterly Percentile

39 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.73B

2.93%

Futures

467.33B

0.13%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25bps to 4.35% amid surging oil prices, intensifying cost-of-living pressures and slowing growth. This hawkish move may dampen risk appetite and reduce DeFi and crypto trading activity in the APAC region.

Markets are increasingly pricing in the risk of a US Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 as inflation expectations rise due to higher oil prices. This shift from rate cut bets could pressure Bitcoin and risk assets, reducing liquidity in DeFi and NFT markets.

Brent crude surged to $119 per barrel following Middle East conflict escalation, fueling global inflation. Elevated energy costs are likely to sustain high interest rates, which may suppress crypto market inflows and increase volatility across digital assets.

Australia's March CPI jumped to 4.6% YoY, the highest since September 2023, driven by a 32.8% MoM spike in fuel prices. Persistent inflation could prompt further monetary tightening, negatively impacting crypto market sentiment and risk-on positioning.

US 30-year Treasury yields are nearing 5% as bond market stress intensifies, reflecting concerns over inflation and geopolitical risks. Higher yields may attract capital away from crypto, reducing DeFi TVL and dampening speculative activity.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

SIX received FINMA approval to integrate its digital CSD and offer crypto custody, enabling Swiss financial institutions to manage digital assets under unified regulation, boosting institutional confidence.

Securitize secured expanded FINRA approval to custody, settle, and underwrite tokenized securities, allowing on-chain settlement against stablecoins and strengthening regulated digital asset infrastructure in the US.

US banking groups raised concerns over the CLARITY Act's stablecoin yield provisions, warning of potential risks to traditional deposits and urging lawmakers to tighten regulatory language, which may delay legislation.

Circle France obtained AMF approval under the EU MiCA framework to provide custody and transfer services for USDC and EURC, reinforcing stablecoin compliance and expanding regulated access across Europe.

Toncoin (TON): TON surged 29.65% in the past 24 hours, driven by a 705% spike in trading volume to $967M and strong momentum as Telegram became the largest validator, boosting network adoption.

MemeCore (M): MemeCore (M) jumped 25.78% in 24 hours, fueled by high transaction volumes and recent hard fork reducing gas fees, despite ongoing scrutiny over insider holdings and token dilution risk.

MORPHO Labs (MORPHO): MORPHO rose 17.80% in the last 24 hours, with trading volume up 131% to $42M, as DeFi users flocked to its efficient lending vaults and isolated market features.

Smart Money Movements

Bitmine Immersion Technologies purchased 101,745 ETH for $238 million, raising its total Ethereum holdings to over 5.18 million ETH, valued above $12 billion. The company staked 4.36 million ETH, expecting $297 million in annual rewards.

Over $1 billion in Bitcoin, totaling 12,849 BTC, was transferred after being dormant for nearly three years as BTC price surpassed $80,000, signaling renewed activity among long-term holders.

Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust acquired 57.338 BTC via Coinbase, valued at approximately $4.6 million, increasing its total Bitcoin holdings to 2,678 BTC worth $217 million.

Coinbase BTC recorded six limit sell orders totaling $5.4 million in the $86,000-$91,000 range, remaining unfilled for nearly 10 hours, indicating potential market testing by large players.

Institutional trading in the past 24 hours showed Bitcoin with a net buy volume of $138 million, while Ethereum faced a net sell volume of $61.41 million, reflecting contrasting order imbalances.

Events to Watch

May 5 (Tue)

Reserve Bank of Australia meets; US Fed Governor Bowman delivers speech; ISM Services Report released, all potentially impacting global markets.

May 6 (Wed)

HCOB Eurozone PMIs released; US Fed Goolsbee delivers speech, both key for monetary policy and market sentiment.

May 8 (Fri)

Brazil CPI and US Nonfarm Payrolls data released, providing critical signals for global economic outlook and risk assets.

Table of Contents