I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

1.

Macro Environment

The imminent US government shutdown is expected to delay key economic data releases, increasing market uncertainty and supporting crypto as a risk-off hedge. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates steady at 3.6% amid rising inflation, signaling caution and impacting AUD liquidity. Gold prices hit record highs on Fed rate uncertainty, often correlating with increased Bitcoin inflows as investors diversify.
2.

Crypto Market

The crypto market shows mixed performance over the past 12 hours. Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $114,294, down 0.33%, while Ethereum (ETH) is at $4,151, down 1.77%, both pressured by ETF outflows and cautious sentiment. Altcoins are mixed: Aptos (APT) rose 5.16% on DeFi partnerships, PUMP.fun (PUMP) gained 6.36% on Solana ecosystem activity, while Solana (SOL) fell 2.06%. MemeCore (M) was flat. Sector rotation and ecosystem news drove notable moves.
3.

Today's Outlook

TOKEN2049, the world’s largest blockchain conference, opens in Singapore today, featuring ZetaChain and a major Solana ecosystem event. SUI unlocks 44 million tokens (1.23% of supply) and EigenLayer unlocks 36.82 million tokens (13.77% of supply), both potentially impacting market liquidity and volatility.
Fear and Greed Index
94.00% Annual Percentile
43 Neutral
Total Crypto Market Cap
$3.90T
0.72%
Total Market Trading Volume
$167.36B
6.01%
Altcoin Season Index
0.00%
Quarterly Percentile
56 / 100
Total Futures Market Open Interest
3.50B
1.05%
Futures
1.11T
0.66%
Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

1.

The imminent US government shutdown is expected to delay key economic data releases, increasing market uncertainty and potentially boosting Bitcoin and crypto as alternative assets amid risk-off sentiment.

2.

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate at 3.6% due to rising inflation, signaling a cautious stance; this may limit AUD liquidity and impact DeFi flows involving AUD-pegged stablecoins.

3.

Eurozone inflation data for September is anticipated to show a slight uptick, which could influence ECB monetary policy and affect EUR-denominated stablecoin demand and cross-border crypto settlements.

4.

Poland's CPI inflation held steady at 2.9% in September, supporting expectations for further rate cuts; this could weaken the Polish zloty and increase local demand for crypto as a hedge against currency depreciation.

5.

Gold prices hit record highs amid Fed rate uncertainty, reflecting increased safe-haven demand; this trend often correlates with higher Bitcoin inflows as investors diversify away from fiat and traditional assets.

1.

The SEC has issued a no-action letter allowing investment advisers to use state-chartered trust companies as qualified custodians for crypto assets, expanding custody options and potentially increasing institutional participation.

2.

The New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) updated its crypto custody rules, requiring customer assets to be held in separate on-chain or ledgered wallets and restricting use as collateral, aiming to enhance asset protection and legal clarity.

3.

A joint roundtable between the SEC and CFTC marked the official end of their regulatory 'turf war,' with both agencies pledging harmonized oversight of digital assets, which is expected to reduce compliance uncertainty and support market growth.

4.

The imminent U.S. government shutdown is expected to delay SEC approvals for new crypto ETFs, creating short-term uncertainty and potential volatility in the digital asset market.

1.

MemeCore (M): MemeCore surged 4.1% in 24h with $32.8M volume, driven by its rise to the fourth-largest meme coin and strong September performance.

2.

PUMP.fun (PUMP): PUMP.fun gained 6.3% in 24h with $618M trading volume, boosted by Solana ecosystem activity and new livestreaming features teased by Anatoly Yakovenko.

3.

Aptos (APT): Aptos rose 5.1% in 24h with $615M volume, supported by growing DeFi integrations and recent partnerships expanding blockchain payments in Southeast Asia.

Smart Money Movements

1.

A newly created wallet received 51,255 ETH worth $213 million from FalconX within the last 10 hours, indicating a major Ethereum treasury movement.

2.

A crypto whale invested $33 million in XPL during a market dip, including a $24.91 million spot purchase and an 11.25 million XPL leveraged long position.

3.

Bit Digital staked over 86% of its Ethereum holdings with Figment and upsized its convertible bond offering to $135 million, set to close October 2, 2025.

4.

1,071 BTC valued at $122 million was transferred from Coinbase Institutional to an unknown wallet, highlighting ongoing large-scale Bitcoin movements.

5.

Tether acquired 8,888.889 Bitcoin worth approximately $1 billion on the last day of Q3 2025, reinforcing its position as a major institutional BTC holder.

Events to Watch

Oct 1 (Wed)

TOKEN2049, the world’s largest blockchain conference, opens in Singapore; ZetaChain showcases new dApps; Solana ecosystem event runs concurrently.

Oct 1 (Wed)

SUI unlocks 44.25M tokens ($142.7M, 0.44% of supply) for core contributors; Epsilon Network unlocks 60M tokens, both potentially impacting market liquidity.

Oct 2 (Thu)

Base U16A Mainnet Upgrade activates, enhancing developer flexibility in the Optimism Superchain; Anoma unlocks 202.5M XAN tokens ($26.5M, 2.03% of supply).

Oct 3 (Fri)

US September jobs report, nonfarm payrolls, and unemployment data to be released; IMX unlocks 17.56M tokens ($17.56M); Khugaverse KOIN token launches.

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