Privacy Coins Surge as Bitcoin and Ethereum Face Dollar Pressure

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The US dollar index has surpassed 100, signaling risk-off sentiment and potential outflows from crypto. The European Commission is advancing unified crypto regulation under ESMA, aiming to boost market stability. Tokenization of real-world assets and regulatory clarity in Europe are accelerating institutional adoption and on-chain liquidity.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw mixed performance in the past 12 hours. Bitcoin (BTC) fell 2.33% to $107,021, while Ethereum (ETH) dropped 5.47% to $3,637, both pressured by a stronger dollar and risk-off flows. Privacy coins outperformed: Decred (DCR) surged 69.36%, DASH (DASH) jumped 30.09%, and Zcash (ZEC) rose 3.67%, driven by sector momentum and technical breakouts.

Today's Outlook

Key events today include the release of Swiss CPI data, which will provide fresh inflation insights, and the opening of Ripple's Swell and Chainlink's SmartCon conferences in New York, both expected to generate institutional and developer attention.

Fear and Greed Index

74.00% Annual Percentile

36 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.54T

4.30%

Total Market Trading Volume

$213.22B

102.51%

Altcoin Season Index

27.27%

Quarterly Percentile

28 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.24B

0.11%

Futures

809.33B

9.45%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The US Treasury has lowered its Q4 2025 borrowing estimate to $569 billion, reflecting improved tax revenues and cash management. This reduction may ease bond market pressure, potentially supporting Bitcoin and Ethereum by stabilizing yields and risk sentiment.

The US dollar index (DXY) has surpassed 100 for the first time since August, signaling a stronger dollar. This could lead to capital outflows from risk assets, putting downward pressure on BTC and DeFi liquidity as investors seek safer returns.

The probability of a Federal Reserve 25bps rate cut in December stands at 67.3% per CME FedWatch. Easing expectations are fueling volatility in crypto markets, with traders positioning for potential increases in BTC and altcoin prices if monetary policy loosens.

A consortium of 30 major financial institutions, including BlackRock and State Street, tested tokenized money market fund collateral in Europe. Enhanced liquidity from tokenization could improve DeFi protocols' efficiency and attract institutional capital to crypto markets.

The tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) is accelerating in 2025, driven by higher yield prospects and new frameworks. This trend is expanding investment options in DeFi, increasing on-chain liquidity and diversifying risk for crypto investors.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

Hong Kong has relaxed crypto trading regulations, allowing licensed platforms to access global order books and distribute newer virtual assets to professional investors, aiming to boost liquidity and strengthen its position as a digital asset hub.

The European Commission is preparing a draft proposal to grant ESMA unified authority over crypto and stock exchanges, aiming to streamline cross-border compliance and reduce regulatory fragmentation across the EU, which could enhance market stability and investor confidence.

Zerohash has received MiCAR authorization from the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets, enabling it to offer regulated embedded crypto and stablecoin services across the European Economic Area, signaling growing regulatory clarity and adoption in Europe.

AMINA Bank has become the first to secure a MiCA crypto-asset service provider license via its Austrian subsidiary, reflecting the increasing importance of regulatory compliance for digital asset firms operating in the EU.

Clearstream, part of Deutsche Börse Group, will launch institutional-grade crypto custody services in April, leveraging a MiCAR license obtained by Crypto Finance, which is expected to facilitate broader institutional participation in the European crypto market.

Decred (DCR): DCR surged 74% in 24h with trading volume up 738%, hitting $32.31. The rally lacks a clear event driver, but momentum is fueled by outsized volume and outperforming the market by 92% over 7 days.

DASH (DASH): DASH jumped 30% in 24h to $118.37, reaching a three-year high. The surge is driven by privacy coin sector momentum, technical breakout, and derivatives volume up 166%.

Zcash (ZEC): ZEC rose 13% in 24h to $426.51, testing a key trendline. The move is supported by renewed privacy coin demand and RSI recovery, signaling a shift in market sentiment.

Smart Money Movements

BlackRock transferred 1,198 BTC (about $129.09M) and 15,121 ETH (about $56.1M) to Coinbase within the past 24 hours, signaling major institutional repositioning.

The on-chain address '7 Siblings' acquired 15,092.8 ETH for $55.15M at an average price of $3,654.59, raising total holdings to 128,205.83 ETH ($464M) in the last 14 hours.

Crypto whale HyperUnit invested $55M in long positions on Bitcoin ($37M) and Ether ($18M) via Hyperliquid, following a $200M profit from recent market volatility.

Owen Gunden, an ancient Bitcoin whale, deposited 1,288.76 BTC (about $138.23M) to Kraken, while still holding 7,150 BTC valued at $761.81M.

Strategy acquired 397 BTC for approximately $45.6M at an average price of $114,771 per coin, bringing total holdings to 641,205 BTC and achieving a 26.1% YTD yield.

Events to Watch

Nov 4 (Tue)

Swiss CPI m/m data will be released, offering key inflation insights; Ripple's Swell and Chainlink's SmartCon conferences open in New York.

Nov 5 (Wed)

Brazil central bank announces interest-rate decision; U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report provides early labor market signals.

Nov 6 (Thu)

Bank of England, Mexico central bank to announce interest-rate decisions; U.S. Fed officials Barr, Williams, and Waller deliver policy speeches.

Nov 7 (Fri)

U.S. October jobs report and nonfarm payrolls released, impacting Fed policy outlook; Bloccelerate VC's Web3 founder summit convenes in NYC.

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