PLUME and H Token Unlocks Drive Volatility as Bitcoin, Ethereum Slide

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with market focus on FOMC guidance. The U.S. CLARITY Act faces industry backlash for restricting stablecoin yields, raising concerns over DOLLAR competitiveness. Eurozone leadership changes and China's intensified crypto AML efforts add to global policy uncertainty.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad declines over the past 12 hours, with Bitcoin down 2.5% to $92,869 and Ethereum falling 3.9% to $3,210. Altcoins also trended lower, led by PLUME (-10.3%), while Humanity Protocol (H) surged 7.6% on anticipation of a major token unlock. Privacy coins like Monero outperformed, buoyed by increased demand and new derivatives.

Today's Outlook

Today, major cliff unlocks for PLUME ($22.41M) and H ($18.95M) tokens are set to release significant supply, potentially impacting market liquidity and volatility. TROVE token also launches on Solana, drawing attention to new DeFi opportunities.

Fear and Greed Index

2.00% Annual Percentile

49 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.14T

2.55%

Total Market Trading Volume

$120.11B

95.37%

Altcoin Season Index

8.33%

Quarterly Percentile

27 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.69B

1.80%

Futures

646.69B

19.93%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% this week, with market sentiment closely tied to the FOMC's tone on future monetary policy. This stability in US rates is a key driver for Bitcoin and DeFi liquidity, as any dovish or hawkish shift could trigger significant volatility in crypto markets.

Canada's latest CPI data, released today, is anticipated to show headline inflation steady at 2.2% year-over-year, with core inflation near 2.8%. Easing inflation supports expectations for further Bank of Canada rate cuts, which could weaken the Canadian dollar and impact cross-border crypto flows and stablecoin demand.

The Reserve Bank of India has formally proposed a BRICS CBDC interconnection plan for the 2026 summit, aiming to link digital currencies of member nations. This initiative could accelerate de-dollarization trends and reshape cross-border settlement flows, potentially increasing crypto adoption in emerging markets.

Eurozone finance ministers will nominate a new ECB vice president today, marking the start of a broader leadership transition. Changes in ECB leadership may influence future monetary policy direction, affecting euro liquidity and risk appetite in crypto and NFT markets.

The U.S. Supreme Court will soon rule on a case regarding Federal Reserve independence, with potential implications for central bank autonomy. Any perceived threat to Fed independence could increase macro uncertainty, driving volatility in Bitcoin and digital asset prices.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

China's Supreme Procuratorate announced intensified anti-money laundering efforts targeting underground banks and virtual currency crimes, increasing compliance pressure on crypto exchanges and users.

The U.S. CLARITY Act faces industry backlash as it prohibits yield on stablecoins, with critics warning this could weaken the dollar's competitiveness against China's interest-bearing digital yuan and impact global stablecoin adoption.

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson publicly criticized Ripple CEO for supporting the CLARITY Act, highlighting industry concerns that expanded SEC authority may stifle blockchain innovation and disadvantage smaller crypto projects.

Coinbase withdrew support for the Senate's version of the CLARITY Act due to increased SEC powers and DeFi restrictions, causing a key regulatory vote delay and prolonging U.S. crypto market uncertainty.

Humanity Protocol (H): Surged 7.2% in 24h to $0.197, with $55M volume as traders anticipate a major 105M H token unlock on Jan 25, driving strong buy-side momentum.

Monero (XMR): Rose 3.9% in 24h to $623, with $356M volume, fueled by increased demand for privacy coins and new XMR/USDC perpetual contracts boosting leveraged trading.

SKY (SKY): Gained 2% in 24h to $0.065, with $29M volume, as the market adapts to the Maker (MKR) rebranding and new token structure, attracting renewed DeFi interest.

Smart Money Movements

A whale accumulated 50,537.79 ETH worth $162 million in the past 24 hours, with ongoing purchases at an average price of $3,932.8.

BitMine Immersion Technologies increased its Ethereum holdings to 4,143,502 ETH, representing 3.43% of total supply, valued at $13.2 billion.

The Louisiana State Employees Retirement System disclosed a $3.2 million investment in MicroStrategy shares, reflecting institutional Bitcoin exposure.

Evergreen Capital Management LLC raised its stake in iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) by 82.7%, now holding 33,308 shares valued at $2.17 million.

A Polymarket trader earned $233,000 by exploiting thin liquidity in XRP markets over the weekend using automated trading bots.

Events to Watch

Jan 19 (Mon)

PLUME and H tokens will undergo major cliff unlocks today, releasing $22.41M and $18.95M respectively; TROVE token launches on Solana.

Jan 20 (Tue)

ETHGas Foundation will announce GWEI airdrop eligibility, impacting potential token distribution and community engagement.

Jan 21 (Wed)

Plume Network will unlock 1.37B tokens (nearly 40% supply, $21.5M); ETHGas (GWEI) community airdrop; US Supreme Court to hear Fed independence case.

Jan 22 (Thu)

River unlocks $36M tokens (4.32% supply); MBG unlocks $9.74M (12.13% supply); EU emergency summit on US tariffs; US Q3 GDP second estimate release.

Jan 23 (Fri)

US Q4 GDP and PCE inflation data releases; S&P Flash PMIs published—key macro indicators for global markets.

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