ONDO Token Unlock and Mixed Crypto Market Moves Amid Regulatory Uncertainty

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

Escalating US-EU trade tensions and new tariffs are fueling global economic uncertainty, driving risk-off sentiment in crypto. The US Senate's delay of the CLARITY Act increases regulatory ambiguity, dampening institutional confidence. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan's formal integration of digital assets into its banking system signals expanding regulatory oversight and regional adoption.

Crypto Market

Bitcoin trades at $94,975, down 0.49% in 24h, while Ethereum rises 0.36% to $3,305.08, reflecting mixed sentiment. Altcoins show selective strength: IMX (+2.84%), QNT (+3.58%), and GRT (+1.01%) outperform, driven by ecosystem upgrades and institutional news. ONDO is stable (+0.40%) ahead of a major token unlock, with sector rotation favoring Web3 and DeFi tokens.

Today's Outlook

Today, 1.71B ONDO tokens (~$669M, 17.1% of locked supply) unlock, increasing circulating supply by over 50% and potentially raising sell pressure. China’s Q4 GDP data, with a 4.4% YoY growth estimate, will also be closely watched for macro impact on risk assets.

Fear and Greed Index

2.00% Annual Percentile

50 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.22T

0.17%

Total Market Trading Volume

$59.08B

38.62%

Altcoin Season Index

0.00%

Quarterly Percentile

23 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.75B

0.21%

Futures

530.02B

16.76%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

President Trump announced a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries, escalating to 25% by June 1, intensifying global trade tensions and increasing volatility in crypto markets due to risk-off sentiment.

The European Union suspended its trade deal with the United States in response to tariff threats, raising concerns over global economic growth and potentially driving capital flows into Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat instability.

Bank of America forecasts that US banks will adopt cryptocurrency payments, signaling a shift in traditional finance and supporting long-term growth in DeFi liquidity and stablecoin transaction volumes.

The stablecoin market reached a record $310.4 billion in early 2026, reflecting surging demand for on-chain liquidity and supporting increased trading activity across DeFi and NFT platforms.

The tokenized euro market cap surpassed $1.1 billion, highlighting growing adoption of tokenized fiat currencies and enhancing cross-border settlement efficiency for crypto and DeFi participants.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The US Senate has postponed the vote on the CLARITY Act, with the White House making its support conditional on Coinbase reaching a yield-sharing agreement with banks. This delay increases regulatory uncertainty and may dampen institutional confidence in the crypto market.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has publicly opposed the current draft of the US crypto market structure bill, citing concerns over stablecoin yield restrictions and potential harm to consumer choice. The ongoing dispute highlights industry divisions and could slow regulatory progress.

Kazakhstan has enacted a new banking law formally integrating digital assets into its national financial system, expanding regulatory oversight of crypto exchanges and stablecoins. This move is expected to boost investor protection and foster broader crypto adoption in the region.

Moldova will implement MiCA-style crypto regulations in 2026, legalizing crypto trading but restricting its use for payments. This alignment with EU standards aims to provide legal clarity and enhance investor security in the Moldovan crypto market.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins emphasized the growing role of stablecoins, now accounting for 25% of Bitcoin trading volume, as the US Congress works on a bipartisan bill to clarify crypto market structure and regulatory responsibilities, potentially increasing market transparency.

Immutable (IMX): IMX surged 13% in 24h to $0.303, driven by the ZombieWorld game launch, $44M trading volume, and anticipation for zkEVM and Passport Dashboard upgrades.

Quant (QNT): QNT rose 9.66% in 24h, reaching $82.16, as trading volume spiked to $45M and bullish momentum followed a breakout above key resistance on strong institutional adoption news.

The Graph (GRT): GRT gained 9% in 24h to $0.044, supported by increased Web3 development activity and the rollout of its Token API to TRON, boosting trading volume to $35M.

Smart Money Movements

A crypto whale amassed $40 million in unrealized profits from leveraged positions on Hyperliquid, including 1,000 BTC, 223,340 ETH, and Solana, with leverage between 5x and 10x.

Bitmine acquired $65 million worth of Ethereum, reflecting growing institutional confidence and expanding its exposure to DeFi, NFTs, and tokenized assets.

XRP-focused ETFs recorded $56.84 million in net inflows over the past week, with large investors purchasing over 50 million XRP despite a 1% price decline.

A whale deposited $7.9 million USDC into HyperLiquid, opening new long positions in Ethereum and Cardano at prices near $3,270 for ETH and $0.39 for ADA.

Cardano whales accumulated approximately 180 million ADA during recent price pullbacks, while institutional interest increased with ETF filings and Grayscale allocating 18.5% of its Smart Contract Fund to ADA.

Events to Watch

Jan 18 (Sun)

1.9B ONDO tokens (~$774M) unlock, increasing circulating supply by ~60%; China Q4 GDP YoY growth rate estimated at 4.4%.

Jan 19 (Mon)

PBOC policy decision and Loan Prime Rate announcement; Eurozone HICP and Core HICP data release; Bank of Canada and Canada CPI data release; China Q4 GDP and December activity data release.

Jan 20 (Tue)

Germany to release Producer Price Index and ZEW survey; TroveMarkets launches $12M DeFi token.

Jan 22 (Thu)

US Q4 GDP data release; Pi Network governance vote for 15.8M users; Stellar X-Ray Protocol 25 upgrade launches; Optimism governance buyback proposal vote.

Jan 23 (Fri)

US PCE inflation data release; Japan inflation data and Bank of Japan interest rate decision; University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final release; ChimpX AI CHIMP DeFi IDO on Eesee.

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