I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

1.

Macro Environment

The US OCC's conditional approval of five crypto firms as national trust banks signals deeper regulatory integration. The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut to 3.5%-3.75% boosts liquidity and risk appetite for digital assets. Ongoing US Senate negotiations on a comprehensive crypto bill create short-term regulatory uncertainty.
2.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad declines over the past 12 hours, with Bitcoin down 4.43% to $97,474 and Ethereum falling 9.27% to $3,144.86, pressured by weak ETF inflows and risk-off sentiment. Altcoins also dropped sharply; Arbitrum fell 11.73%, Solana 8.75%, and FET 12.59%. Merlin Chain outperformed with a milder 2.20% loss, supported by its mainnet launch and ZK-Rollup integration.
3.

Today's Outlook

Today's key events include the OCC's conditional approval of Ripple, Circle, Paxos, BitGo, and Fidelity as crypto banks, marking a major regulatory milestone. DeAgentAI mainnet launches, expanding decentralized AI agent networks. Hex Trust launches wXRP, enabling XRP cross-chain operations.
Fear and Greed Index
80.00% Annual Percentile
29 Fear
Total Crypto Market Cap
$3.07T
2.05%
Total Market Trading Volume
$139.27B
3.05%
Altcoin Season Index
27.27%
Quarterly Percentile
19 / 100
Total Futures Market Open Interest
4.41B
2.70%
Futures
778.12B
6.79%
Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

1.

The Bank of Japan will raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% on December 19, reaching a 30-year high. This move could strengthen the yen and exert downward pressure on Bitcoin and altcoin prices, as historical yen appreciation often leads to crypto market corrections.

2.

India's retail inflation increased to 0.71% in November, remaining below the central bank's target range. Continued low inflation and recent rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India support robust economic growth, which may enhance risk appetite and liquidity in crypto markets.

3.

The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75% this week, marking the third consecutive cut in 2025. This easing cycle has boosted Bitcoin and altcoin prices, as lower rates typically increase market liquidity and investor demand for digital assets.

4.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) will accept AE Coin stablecoin payments at nearly 980 fuel stations across the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. This real-world stablecoin adoption demonstrates growing integration of digital assets into traditional commerce, supporting broader crypto market utility.

5.

President Trump has elevated Kevin Warsh as the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, signaling a potential shift toward more aggressive monetary easing. Expectations of lower future rates could further support crypto market liquidity and risk-on sentiment.

1.

The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has conditionally approved five crypto firms, including Ripple and Circle, for national trust bank charters, signaling increased regulatory integration and potentially boosting institutional confidence in stablecoins and digital assets.

2.

Circle, the issuer of USDC, received conditional OCC approval to establish a national trust bank, aligning with new US stablecoin regulations and enhancing compliance, which may strengthen USDC's credibility and market adoption.

3.

Major crypto and DeFi organizations have strongly opposed Citadel's push for stricter SEC oversight of DeFi, arguing that traditional regulations could stifle innovation and misclassify decentralized protocols, fueling ongoing debate over DeFi's regulatory future.

4.

The SEC has granted a no-action letter to DTCC, allowing tokenization of US financial assets like stocks and bonds, marking a significant step toward integrating blockchain with traditional markets and potentially increasing institutional adoption of crypto infrastructure.

5.

Ongoing US Senate negotiations over a comprehensive crypto market structure bill are set to continue into January, with unresolved issues around stablecoin yields, DeFi oversight, and SEC authority, creating short-term regulatory uncertainty for the crypto sector.

1.

Merlin Chain (MERL): MERL saw a 17.9% 24h volume surge to $48M, driven by its Layer 2 mainnet launch and ZK-Rollup integration, boosting scalability and ecosystem activity.

Smart Money Movements

1.

Bitmine acquired 3.2% of the total Ethereum supply, valued at $12 billion, highlighting a major institutional investment in ETH.

2.

Grayscale transferred 14,684 ETH and 252 BTC, worth over $70 million, to Coinbase Prime, reflecting ongoing large-scale asset management.

3.

American Bitcoin expanded its Bitcoin holdings by 613 BTC, bringing its total to 4,931 BTC, demonstrating continued bullish accumulation.

4.

A whale executed a $14.68 million swap, exchanging 163 BTC for 4,717 ETH via THORChain, as part of a broader $145 million BTC-to-ETH conversion trend.

5.

Polychain Capital moved 4.11 million PENDLE tokens, valued at $9 million, to FalconX, indicating active portfolio rebalancing by major crypto funds.

Events to Watch

Dec 13 (Sat)

OCC conditionally approves Ripple, Circle, Paxos, BitGo, and Fidelity as crypto banks; DeAgentAI mainnet launches, expanding decentralized AI agent network; Hex Trust launches wXRP, enabling XRP cross-chain operations.

Dec 15 (Mon)

ECB to announce policy settings; US and Japan to release November CPI data; Bank of England expected to announce policy decision, with a 25bps cut 90% priced in.

Dec 16 (Tue)

US Bureau of Labor Statistics to release November jobs report; US Retail Sales (MoM) for October to be published; US NFP data for November to be released.
US CPI and Core CPI for November to be released; Federal Reserve expected to announce a 25bps rate cut; ECB and Bank of England to announce interest rate decisions; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec) to be published.
Bank of Japan to announce interest rate decision, likely raising rates to 0.75%, a 30-year high, potentially impacting Bitcoin and altcoins.

III. Phemex Market Focus

New Listings

New futures trading pair CYSUSDT with 20X leverage
New futures trading pair USUSDT with 20X leverage
Spot trading for Power Protocol (POWER) with immediate availability
Spot trading for Cysic (CYS) with immediate availability
Spot trading for Talus Network (US) with immediate availability

Phemex Promotions

Celebrate the festive season with Phemex and enjoy mega rewards. Participate now to maximize your gains!
Join the trading event and share a prize pool of 30,000 USDT by trading STABLE, RLS, and POWER tokens.
Compete in the Phemex Futures Trading Apex Competition and showcase your trading skills to win exciting rewards.
Trade to share 500,000 WET in this exciting CandyDrop event. Don't miss out on your chance to win!
Join us in celebrating Phemex's 6th anniversary with special events and rewards. Check out the details now!