Major Token Unlocks for ARB and VELO Drive Volatility Amid Mixed Crypto Market

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The US Federal Reserve, ECB, and Bank of Canada have all cut rates, signaling a global shift toward monetary easing and increased liquidity. The US SEC approved generic listing standards for crypto ETFs, paving the way for faster institutional adoption. The US Treasury is soliciting public input on the GENIUS Act, indicating imminent regulatory frameworks for stablecoins.

Crypto Market

The crypto market showed mixed performance over the past 12 hours. Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $115,613, down 0.12%, while Ethereum (ETH) rose 0.29% to $4,487.27, supported by DeFi activity. Altcoins were led by ASTER (+58.2%), IP (+19.7%), and DEXE (+18.2%), driven by mainnet launches, community engagement, and governance upgrades. ARB and VELO saw modest gains ahead of major token unlocks, raising short-term liquidity and price risk.

Today's Outlook

Today, Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens (2.03% of supply, $50.63M), and VELO will unlock 3 billion tokens (13.6% of supply, $42M), both events likely to increase market liquidity and volatility for these assets.

Fear and Greed Index

50.00% Annual Percentile

48 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$4.05T

0.35%

Total Market Trading Volume

$95.80B

30.16%

Altcoin Season Index

81.82%

Quarterly Percentile

78 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.93B

0.56%

Futures

849.09B

9.53%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The US Federal Reserve implemented a 25 basis point interest rate cut, signaling a shift toward monetary easing. This move is expected to boost risk appetite and liquidity in crypto markets, potentially supporting BTC and DeFi asset prices.

The European Central Bank executed its seventh consecutive rate cut, lowering the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. Increased eurozone liquidity may drive capital flows into digital assets, enhancing DeFi and NFT market activity.

The Bank of Canada reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, citing softening domestic demand. Lower Canadian rates could encourage institutional allocation to crypto assets as traditional yields decline.

The US Treasury's General Account balance nears the $850 billion target, with analysts forecasting a liquidity boost for private markets. This anticipated liquidity release is seen as a catalyst for a bullish phase in the crypto sector.

Japan's national debt has reached 235% of GDP, prompting the Bank of Japan to sell off ETF holdings. Rising Japanese bond yields and global market volatility may increase demand for alternative assets like bitcoin and gold.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The U.S. SEC has approved generic listing standards for crypto and commodity-based ETFs, enabling faster product launches and potentially increasing institutional participation in digital assets.

The U.S. Treasury has opened a public comment period on the implementation of the GENIUS Act, the nation's first stablecoin law, signaling imminent regulatory frameworks for payment stablecoins.

Nigeria is finalizing a crypto tax framework requiring registration of virtual asset service providers and taxing all crypto transactions, which may increase compliance costs and formalize the sector.

Thailand has enacted a five-year capital gains tax exemption for crypto sold via licensed platforms, aiming to boost regulated adoption and attract investment in the digital asset sector.

Saudi Arabia maintains strict controls on retail crypto trading, with banks restricted from crypto dealings and regulatory sandboxes guiding the cautious development of formal digital asset frameworks.

ASTER (ASTER): ASTER surged 84.8% in 24h to $1.59 with $1.86B volume, driven by its mainnet launch, APX token conversion, and rapid DEX adoption across BNB, Ethereum, Solana, and Arbitrum.

Story (IP): IP jumped 18.8% in 24h to $12.68, fueled by increased community engagement and renewed interest in its charity-focused platform, despite low historical liquidity.

DEXE (DEXE): DEXE rose 18.2% in 24h to $10.19, with $66.9M trading volume, as DAO governance upgrades and new DeFi partnerships attracted significant investor attention.

Smart Money Movements

A whale deposited $7.4 million USDC into HyperLiquid and opened leveraged long positions in BNB and XPL, signaling aggressive smart money deployment.

BlackRock invested $144.3 million in Ethereum, marking a significant institutional shift and potentially paving the way for a spot ETH ETF.

US-based Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $223 million in net inflows, while Ethereum ETFs saw $47.8 million, with BlackRock contributing $246 million to BTC ETFs.

A whale wallet purchased 1.1 billion PUMP tokens for $8 million USDC, highlighting substantial capital inflow into the token.

Three whale wallets withdrew over $10 million in ASTER tokens from the Aster platform within 24 hours, indicating strong accumulation by large holders.

Events to Watch

Sep 21 (Sun)

Arbitrum (ARB) unlocks 92.65M tokens ($50.63M, 2.03% of supply); VELO unlocks $42M (3B tokens, 13.6% of supply), raising liquidity and price risk.

Sep 22 (Mon)

US August Inflation Rate and China Loan Prime Rate (1Y/5Y) to be announced; 0G Labs TGE and 213.15M 0G tokens ($549M, 21.31% of supply) unlock.

Sep 23 (Tue)

NEAR Protocol network upgrade; US Current Account, Eurozone Q2 GDP, and Fed Chair Powell speech may impact global markets; Arbitrum unlocks 1.24% of supply.

Sep 24 (Wed)

Zilliqa network upgrade; Australia August CPI, Japan Flash PMIs, SNB and Banxico rate decisions, and Swiss National Bank policy meeting.

Sep 25 (Thu)

US Q2 GDP final data and Durable Goods Orders; AltLayer token unlock (42.32% cumulative); Swiss National Bank and ECB policy data releases.

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