Major Token Unlocks and Regulatory Uncertainty Drive Crypto Volatility

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

US regulatory uncertainty and Senate delays on the CLARITY Act have triggered nearly $1B in crypto outflows, heightening investor caution. Russia is advancing new crypto regulations to license exchanges and capture $650M daily turnover, signaling global regulatory tightening. Mixed European economic data and rising inflation in Norway suggest uneven risk appetite, with policy shifts likely to impact crypto market liquidity.

Crypto Market

Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $68,561, down 0.67% in 24h, while Ethereum (ETH) is at $1,970.5, down 1.45%. Most altcoins declined, with Solana (SOL) at $84.17 (-3.33%) and XRP at $1.50 (-1.45%). Cosmos (ATOM) and MYX Finance (MYX) outperformed, up 4.37% and 4.95% respectively, driven by ecosystem activity and incentives. Major token unlocks and persistent ETF outflows weighed on overall sentiment.

Today's Outlook

Over $321M in token unlocks—including ARB ($92.65M), RAIN ($93.46M), ZRO ($44.99M), and YZY ($20.33M)—are set for release today, likely increasing market volatility. Japan and Canada publish key GDP and CPI data, while US consumer confidence figures are also due, all of which may influence global risk sentiment and crypto flows.

Fear and Greed Index

34.00% Annual Percentile

13 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.34T

0.88%

Total Market Trading Volume

$95.24B

4.70%

Altcoin Season Index

75.00%

Quarterly Percentile

33 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.13B

15.16%

Futures

377.36B

0.23%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

US Treasury yields edged lower as investors await key January employment and CPI data this week, with expectations that softer labor and inflation figures could prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain or ease its current policy stance, impacting Bitcoin and risk asset flows.

The British pound strengthened ahead of upcoming UK inflation and employment data, with markets anticipating a potential drop in CPI and stable wage growth, factors that could influence Bank of England rate expectations and indirectly affect crypto market sentiment.

India's wholesale price inflation rose to 1.81% in January 2026, driven by higher manufactured goods prices, signaling persistent cost pressures that may affect INR stability and cross-border crypto trading volumes.

Switzerland's Q4 GDP grew 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, while Sweden's unemployment rate fell to 8.6% in January, reflecting mixed economic resilience in Europe; these trends support moderate risk appetite, potentially benefiting DEFI and NFT market activity.

Norway's annual inflation accelerated to 3.6% in January 2026, raising expectations of tighter monetary policy, which could influence capital flows and liquidity in European crypto markets.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The US Senate is facing delays on the CLARITY Act, a key crypto regulatory bill, due to partisan disputes and industry concerns, causing nearly $1 billion in market outflows and increasing investor uncertainty.

Russia's Finance Ministry reports daily crypto turnover of $650 million and is pushing for new regulations to license exchanges and brokers, aiming to bring most crypto activity under official oversight and boost tax collection.

Japan's Finance Minister has endorsed blockchain-based securities settlement and stablecoin use, signaling growing regulatory support for blockchain finance and potentially increasing demand for assets like XRP and RLUSD.

Ongoing regulatory uncertainty in the US, especially around stablecoin yields and agency oversight, is contributing to recent declines in Bitcoin and altcoin prices as investors await clearer rules before increasing exposure.

MYX Finance (MYX): MYX rose 4.85% in 24h, driven by $23.6M trading volume and a $487.9M market cap. Its cross-chain derivatives protocol and ongoing ecosystem incentives support user growth.

Cosmos Hub (ATOM): ATOM gained 4.36% in 24h, with $58.7M volume and $1.08B market cap. The rise is linked to steady staking participation and robust interchain activity across the Cosmos ecosystem.

Story (STORY): STORY maintained price stability with 0% 24h change, circulating 1B tokens. Its unique charity and NFT storytelling platform underpins community engagement, though no major news drove recent moves.

Smart Money Movements

Harvard Management Company reduced its Bitcoin ETF holdings by 21%, selling approximately $560 million, and initiated a new $86.8 million position in Ethereum ETFs, diversifying its crypto exposure.

A whale withdrew 578 BTC worth $39.76 million from Binance, consolidating holdings to a total of 581 BTC, as tracked by Nansen AI.

North Carolina Department of the Treasury increased its MicroStrategy (MSTR) holdings by 9,117 shares, now holding 168,688 shares valued at $22.6 million, signaling continued institutional interest in Bitcoin-linked equities.

A newly created wallet purchased 21.11 million WLFI tokens for $2.75 million in USDC, with $11.21 million USD1 remaining, indicating potential for further large-scale transactions.

A whale accumulated 7,189 Monero (XMR) tokens, investing $3.59 million since January 15, 2026, with $3.16 million USDC deposited into HyperLiquid and limit orders placed between $250 and $315 per XMR.

Events to Watch

Feb 16 (Mon)

Major token unlocks: ARB (1.82% supply, $92.65M), RAIN ($93.46M), ZRO ($44.99M), YZY ($20.33M) unlock today; $321M total tokens released may increase market volatility.

Feb 16 (Mon)

Japan and Canada release key economic data: Japan GDP and CPI, Canada CPI; US consumer confidence data also published.

Feb 18 (Wed)

US Federal Reserve FOMC meeting minutes released; UK inflation data; New Zealand central bank rate decision; ETHDenver 2026 developer conference opens.

Feb 20 (Fri)

US Q4 GDP advance estimate and December Core PCE Price Index released, crucial for Fed rate outlook; DeFi Saver co-founder speaks at ETHDenver.

Table of Contents

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

Crypto Market

Today's Outlook

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

US Treasury yields edged lower as investors await key January employment and CPI data this week, with expectations that softer labor and inflation figures could prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain or ease its current policy stance, impacting Bitcoin and risk asset flows.

The British pound strengthened ahead of upcoming UK inflation and employment data, with markets anticipating a potential drop in CPI and stable wage growth, factors that could influence Bank of England rate expectations and indirectly affect crypto market sentiment.

India's wholesale price inflation rose to 1.81% in January 2026, driven by higher manufactured goods prices, signaling persistent cost pressures that may affect INR stability and cross-border crypto trading volumes.

Switzerland's Q4 GDP grew 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, while Sweden's unemployment rate fell to 8.6% in January, reflecting mixed economic resilience in Europe; these trends support moderate risk appetite, potentially benefiting DEFI and NFT market activity.

Norway's annual inflation accelerated to 3.6% in January 2026, raising expectations of tighter monetary policy, which could influence capital flows and liquidity in European crypto markets.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The US Senate is facing delays on the CLARITY Act, a key crypto regulatory bill, due to partisan disputes and industry concerns, causing nearly $1 billion in market outflows and increasing investor uncertainty.

Russia's Finance Ministry reports daily crypto turnover of $650 million and is pushing for new regulations to license exchanges and brokers, aiming to bring most crypto activity under official oversight and boost tax collection.

Japan's Finance Minister has endorsed blockchain-based securities settlement and stablecoin use, signaling growing regulatory support for blockchain finance and potentially increasing demand for assets like XRP and RLUSD.

Ongoing regulatory uncertainty in the US, especially around stablecoin yields and agency oversight, is contributing to recent declines in Bitcoin and altcoin prices as investors await clearer rules before increasing exposure.

Trending Tokens

MYX Finance (MYX): MYX rose 4.85% in 24h, driven by $23.6M trading volume and a $487.9M market cap. Its cross-chain derivatives protocol and ongoing ecosystem incentives support user growth.

Cosmos Hub (ATOM): ATOM gained 4.36% in 24h, with $58.7M volume and $1.08B market cap. The rise is linked to steady staking participation and robust interchain activity across the Cosmos ecosystem.

Story (STORY): STORY maintained price stability with 0% 24h change, circulating 1B tokens. Its unique charity and NFT storytelling platform underpins community engagement, though no major news drove recent moves.

Smart Money Movements

Harvard Management Company reduced its Bitcoin ETF holdings by 21%, selling approximately $560 million, and initiated a new $86.8 million position in Ethereum ETFs, diversifying its crypto exposure.

A whale withdrew 578 BTC worth $39.76 million from Binance, consolidating holdings to a total of 581 BTC, as tracked by Nansen AI.

North Carolina Department of the Treasury increased its MicroStrategy (MSTR) holdings by 9,117 shares, now holding 168,688 shares valued at $22.6 million, signaling continued institutional interest in Bitcoin-linked equities.

A newly created wallet purchased 21.11 million WLFI tokens for $2.75 million in USDC, with $11.21 million USD1 remaining, indicating potential for further large-scale transactions.

A whale accumulated 7,189 Monero (XMR) tokens, investing $3.59 million since January 15, 2026, with $3.16 million USDC deposited into HyperLiquid and limit orders placed between $250 and $315 per XMR.

Events to Watch

Feb 16 (Mon)

Feb 18 (Wed)

Feb 20 (Fri)

III. Phemex Market Focus

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