Fed Rate Cut and Macro Events Drive Crypto Volatility

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The US Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, increasing USD liquidity and supporting risk assets. The ECB and Bank of Japan maintained steady policies, stabilizing the euro and yen but sustaining global capital flows. Indonesia's government bond-backed stablecoin initiative signals rising digital asset adoption and regulatory focus in Southeast Asia.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw mixed performance over the past 12 hours, with Bitcoin down 2% to $110,700 amid ETF outflows and risk-off sentiment, while Ethereum dropped 3% to $3,900 but showed resilience on strong institutional accumulation and record CME futures open interest. MemeCore (M) surged 13% on sector momentum, Aerodrome Finance (AERO) rose 4.7% as Base network DeFi activity increased, and Quant (QNT) was flat. Altcoins were generally weak, except for select DeFi and meme tokens driven by ecosystem and community catalysts.

Today's Outlook

Today's key events include the ECB interest rate decision, the US Q3 GDP advance estimate, and the FOMC announcement on the federal funds rate. These macro releases are likely to drive volatility across both traditional and crypto markets, with traders closely watching for policy signals and economic growth data.

Fear and Greed Index

54.00% Annual Percentile

39 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.65T

4.22%

Total Market Trading Volume

$201.16B

19.67%

Altcoin Season Index

90.91%

Quarterly Percentile

33 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.43B

0.19%

Futures

848.48B

1.43%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, citing a weakening labor market and persistent inflation. This move increases USD liquidity, potentially supporting Bitcoin and DeFi asset prices in the short term.

Following the Fed's rate cut, the US dollar index weakened and gold prices rose 0.9%, reflecting a shift in risk sentiment. Increased dollar liquidity may drive capital flows into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The European Central Bank maintained its key interest rates unchanged, with the deposit facility rate at 2%. This steady policy stance supports euro stability, which may limit volatility in EUR-denominated crypto trading pairs.

The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark rate at 0.5% amid persistent inflation and yen weakness. Continued accommodative policy in Japan could sustain capital outflows, potentially benefiting global crypto market liquidity.

Indonesia's central bank announced plans to issue a government bond-backed stablecoin tied to its digital rupiah, aiming to enhance financial inclusion and payment efficiency. This initiative may boost stablecoin adoption and on-chain transaction volumes in Southeast Asia.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

UnionEx and CYRA have partnered to launch a fully regulated crypto exchange in Indonesia, with CYRA holding a PAKD license. This move is expected to boost institutional confidence and set new compliance standards in the Indonesian digital asset market.

Bybit will suspend new user registrations in Japan from October 31 to comply with the Financial Services Agency's regulations, reflecting Japan's tightening oversight of unregistered overseas crypto exchanges and impacting market access for Japanese investors.

Indonesia's tax authority announced that from 2026, e-money and central bank digital currency accounts will be included in global tax data exchanges under OECD's amended CRS, signaling increased regulatory scrutiny and compliance requirements for digital assets.

Hong Kong's SFC has issued new guidelines for digital asset treasury management, urging listed firms to enhance compliance and risk controls when holding cryptocurrencies, which may drive a shift toward established assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

CoinTracker has launched a crypto broker tax compliance suite to help exchanges meet new IRS reporting rules effective January 2025, supporting automated Form 1099-DA filings and improving transparency for US crypto investors.

MemeCore (M): MemeCore surged 13% in 24h to $2.59 with $16M trading volume, driven by strong meme coin sector momentum and increased community engagement.

Aerodrome Finance (AERO): Aerodrome Finance rose 4.7% in 24h to $1.01, with $143M trading volume, supported by its role as Base network's central liquidity hub and rising DeFi activity.

Quant (QNT): Quant gained 0.1% in 24h to $79.68, with $21.5M trading volume, reflecting steady demand for interoperability solutions despite no major news events.

Smart Money Movements

BlackRock sold 749 Bitcoin worth approximately $88 million on October 29, reducing its holdings to 805,540 BTC amid a broader market downturn.

A prominent trader increased their Ethereum long position by 2,621.95 ETH, valued at $9.96 million, bringing total holdings to 16,380.08 ETH ($62.35 million) on Hyperliquid.

Over 230,000 Ethereum, valued at more than $900 million, were moved by large holders, likely exchanges, in a major reshuffle over the past week.

Andrew Tate finalized a $12.88 million long position in Bitcoin on October 30, highlighting continued high-profile interest in BTC trading.

Bitplanet, a South Korean public company, purchased 9 additional Bitcoin for $1.08 million on October 30, raising its total BTC holdings to 119.67, valued at $14.17 million.

Events to Watch

Oct 30 (Thu)

ECB interest rate decision and US Q3 GDP growth rate advance estimate will be released; FOMC meeting results on US federal funds rate announced.

Oct 31 (Fri)

US PCE Price Index YoY for September will be released, a key inflation indicator; Nearly $17B in BTC and ETH options will expire on Deribit.

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