Fed Rate Cut and ETF Flows Drive Mixed Crypto Market; SOL, DEXE Outperform

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The US Federal Reserve's recent 25bp rate cut has boosted liquidity expectations and risk appetite. CME data shows a 91.9% chance of another cut in October, fueling bullish sentiment for BTC and ETH. The Bank of Japan's plan to sell $500B in ETFs signals shifting global liquidity, potentially increasing market volatility.

Crypto Market

The crypto market shows mixed trends over the past 12 hours. Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $115,668, down 0.23%, while Ethereum (ETH) is at $4,478.97, up 0.23%. Solana (SOL) leads major altcoins, rising 0.74%, with DEXE (DEXE) surging 31% on DAO adoption. ASTERION (ASTER) fell 0.64%. Market moves are driven by ETF flows, policy expectations, and sector rotation.

Today's Outlook

No major token unlocks or high-impact events are scheduled for today, Sep 21, 2025. Market participants are focused on upcoming macro data and the start of Korea Blockchain Week, which may influence sentiment in the days ahead.

Fear and Greed Index

50.00% Annual Percentile

48 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$4.04T

0.12%

Total Market Trading Volume

$104.26B

6.00%

Altcoin Season Index

81.82%

Quarterly Percentile

78 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.91B

0.11%

Futures

858.96B

8.48%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking its first reduction since 2024. This move has increased market liquidity expectations, supporting risk assets like Bitcoin and DeFi tokens.

The US Treasury General Account (TGA) refill is nearly complete, with the balance surpassing $807 billion. Analysts expect that once the TGA target is reached, liquidity will return to markets, potentially fueling a Bitcoin rally.

CME data shows a 91.9% probability of another Fed rate cut in October. Anticipation of further monetary easing is driving volatility and bullish sentiment in the crypto market, especially for BTC and ETH.

The Bank of Japan announced it will begin selling off over $500 billion in ETF holdings, signaling a shift in global liquidity conditions. This move may increase volatility in both traditional and crypto markets.

Recent US inflation data remains above target, causing the Fed to signal a cautious approach to further rate cuts. Persistent inflation could limit upside for crypto assets if monetary policy tightens again.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The US SEC has unveiled its Spring 2025 regulatory agenda, prioritizing pragmatic digital asset rules and a joint SEC-CFTC roundtable on September 29, aiming to boost institutional confidence and on-chain activity.

Thailand has implemented a 0% capital gains tax on crypto trades until 2029, creating a favorable environment for investors and likely increasing local trading volumes.

The SEC's recent approval of an XRP spot ETF and the launch of a US fund have clarified XRP's regulatory status, potentially attracting more institutional investors despite short-term price volatility.

Grayscale has updated its ETF filing to include Dogecoin, leveraging new SEC fast-track rules that could accelerate the approval of meme-coin and multi-asset crypto ETFs, expanding regulated market access.

UK lawmakers are debating a ban on crypto donations in politics due to concerns over transparency and foreign influence, which could impact the adoption and perception of digital assets in the UK.

ASTERION (ASTER): ASTER surged 31.56% in 24h to $1.57, driven by the launch of its new token and APX-to-ASTER conversion, with $2.5B trading volume and all-time high at $1.97.

DEXE (DEXE): DEXE jumped 31.66% in 24h to $11.62, fueled by strong DAO governance protocol adoption and $170M trading volume, ranking #83 by market cap.

STORY (STORY): STORY rose 19.09% in 24h to $0.000021, supported by increased community engagement on its charity platform and integration with the Cyberstella universe.

Smart Money Movements

Aster transferred 80 million APX tokens worth $132 million from a multisig wallet to the project, signaling major internal fund movement.

A whale moved 312,233 Solana (SOL), valued at over $75 million, to Coinbase Institutional, indicating significant institutional activity.

Solana's treasury reserve company held 17 million SOL, valued at $4.1 billion, with Forward Industries controlling 6.8 million SOL (40% of reserves).

A whale deposited $7.4 million USDC into HyperLiquid and opened leveraged long positions in BNB and XPL, reflecting aggressive trading strategies.

Version One Ventures achieved an 11,343% ROI in one week, while Coinbase Ventures reported a $5.86 million profit, highlighting strong fund performance.

Events to Watch

Sep 22 (Mon)

Sei (SEI) will unlock 4.29 million tokens ($1.36M); Solana Oriental 2025 and Super World Computer 2025 conferences take place in Seoul, featuring major blockchain projects.

Sep 23 (Tue)

Korea Blockchain Week 2025 livestream begins, gathering global industry leaders; US Current Account (Q2) and S&P Global PMI data releases may impact market sentiment.

Sep 24 (Wed)

Nillion (NIL) unlocks 65.12M tokens ($21.4M, 33.37% supply); Korea Blockchain Week 2025 continues with Web3 and DeFi discussions.

Sep 25 (Thu)

US Q2 GDP and employment data releases; Particle Network (PARTI) unlocks 182M tokens ($34M, 78.44% supply); Plasma blockchain token launches ($74M valuation).

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