Ethereum Hits Record On-Chain Activity as Crypto Market Faces ETF Outflows

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

US December CPI rose 2.7% YoY, keeping Fed policy cautious and supporting a strong USD, which pressures crypto risk sentiment. The Bank of Korea held rates at 2.5%, prioritizing FX stability and ending its easing cycle, which may reduce volatility in Korean-linked crypto flows. The US Senate delayed its crypto market structure bill amid industry pushback, increasing regulatory uncertainty and impacting major crypto equities.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw mild declines over the past 12 hours, with Bitcoin down 1.1% to $95,493 and Ethereum down 0.6% to $3,306.82, as ETF outflows and risk-off sentiment weighed on prices. Altcoins broadly underperformed, with Internet Computer (ICP) dropping 7.6%, PUMP.fun (PUMP) down 3.4%, and PancakeSwap (CAKE) nearly flat at -0.3%. Ethereum set a new all-time high in daily on-chain transactions, but this failed to offset overall market weakness.

Today's Outlook

Today, Aave DAO begins discussions on revised revenue-sharing terms, which could impact DeFi governance sentiment. FOGO will unlock 1.54 billion tokens ($74.66M, 15.44% of supply), potentially increasing volatility and affecting its market cap.

Fear and Greed Index

2.00% Annual Percentile

54 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.23T

1.03%

Total Market Trading Volume

$126.69B

16.37%

Altcoin Season Index

25.00%

Quarterly Percentile

26 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.34B

13.60%

Futures

658.40B

8.81%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The Bank of Korea maintained its policy rate at 2.5%, ending its easing cycle due to FX volatility and housing market risks. This neutral stance supports KRW stability, which may reduce short-term volatility in crypto-asset flows and DeFi liquidity linked to Korean markets.

US inflation data for December showed a 2.7% YoY increase, with core CPI at 2.6%. Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target has kept monetary policy cautious, supporting a strong USD and influencing Bitcoin and altcoin price action through risk sentiment and capital flows.

The US dollar index climbed 0.19% to 99.323, reflecting broad USD strength against major currencies. This move has contributed to increased volatility in BTC/USD and ETH/USD pairs, impacting DeFi collateral values and stablecoin demand.

The UK reported a 0.3% MoM GDP rise in November, surpassing expectations. Stronger UK economic data has supported GBP, which may attract more institutional crypto inflows from the region and affect cross-border DeFi activity.

Nigeria's inflation eased to 15.15% in December 2025 after a CPI methodology revision. Lower inflation and improved macro stability could encourage local crypto adoption and increase on-chain transaction volumes in West Africa.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The US Senate Banking Committee has postponed its markup of the crypto market structure bill amid industry pushback, increasing regulatory uncertainty and causing notable declines in Coinbase and Robinhood stock prices.

Senate Democrats from the Banking and Agriculture committees will meet with crypto industry representatives to restart discussions on digital asset market structure legislation, signaling ongoing efforts to establish clear US regulatory frameworks.

Russia's central bank will require commercial banks to report detailed information on clients' cryptocurrency transactions, tightening oversight of cross-border digital asset flows and potentially increasing compliance costs for crypto users.

West Virginia has proposed a bill allowing up to 10% of the state treasury's investment portfolio in digital assets with market caps over $750 billion, reflecting growing institutional acceptance and regulatory engagement with crypto.

Senator Elizabeth Warren faces backlash for proposed amendments to the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, with critics warning that stricter compliance and reduced developer protections could stifle US crypto innovation and drive activity offshore.

Internet Computer (ICP): ICP surged over 25% in 24h, driven by DFINITY's 'Mission 70' whitepaper proposing a 70% inflation cut and accelerated token burns, with daily volume spiking to $753M.

Pump.fun (PUMP): PUMP gained around 18% this week, fueled by four consecutive recovery sessions and strong technical momentum, with daily trading volume exceeding $330M and bullish sentiment on mobile app upgrades.

PancakeSwap (CAKE): CAKE rose nearly 5% in 24h as the community proposed reducing max supply from 450M to 400M, reinforcing deflationary tokenomics and supporting a 24h trading volume of $55M.

Smart Money Movements

Bitmine acquired 24,068 ETH worth approximately $80.57 million via FalconX, increasing its staked holdings to 1.7 million ETH, representing 40% of its total 4.17 million ETH portfolio.

Coinbase Prime transferred 16,700 ETH valued at $54.57 million, including a single transaction of 5,667.39 ETH ($18.82 million) and two additional transactions totaling 21,549.37 ETH ($71.49 million) involving WETH.

A whale deposited 3 million USDC into Hyperliquid and opened $61.9 million in short positions, including 18,260.74 ETH (25x leverage, $60.63 million) and 1,838.06 XMR (5x leverage, $1.27 million).

JUST ecosystem completed a JST token buyback and burn, destroying 525 million tokens valued at over $21 million, reducing total supply by 10.96% and reinforcing its deflationary model.

Digital asset treasury firms invested $49.7 billion in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in 2025, increasing their holdings from $56.5 billion to $134 billion and controlling over 5% of Bitcoin and Ethereum supply by year-end.

Events to Watch

Jan 16 (Fri)

Aave DAO begins discussions on revised revenue-sharing terms, addressing governance tensions; FOGO unlocks 1.54B tokens ($74.66M, 15.44% supply, 41.08% market cap).

Jan 19 (Mon)

Walrus Tusky migration deadline arrives, requiring users to complete data migration to avoid service disruption.

Jan 20 (Tue)

US government to release delayed PCE inflation data for October and November 2025, a key indicator for global markets.

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